Monday, April 14, 2014

印度学者:融入“孟中印缅经济走廊”印度开放还不够

Excerpts from My interview with Zhongxin She of Yunnan on 28 March 2014
中新社新德里3月28日电 (记者 保旭)“相比较中国当前对外开放的力度,印度在沿边开放上力度还不够。”长期研究中国问题的尼赫鲁大学教授狄伯杰28日在印度新德里接受中新社记者采访时如是说。
随着中国对外开放步伐加快,尤其是对南亚地区的开放不断扩大,中国和印度这两个发展中国家的合作越来越受到关注。作为中国向南亚开放前沿的云南省,近年来在推动中印合作中取得许多实质性进展。日前,云南省分别派出高级政府代表团及商务团前往印度交流。
狄伯杰曾在中国留学,是印度最为权威的中国问题专家之一。他告诉记者,中国和印度同为人口大国,也同样是发展中国家,未来将成为全球经济发展的新轴心,因此双方及周边多边合作尤为重要。
狄伯杰称,“在这方面,中国迈出了很大一步,举办中国—南亚商品博览会、K2K经济合作论坛、打造云南作为向南亚开放前沿,特别是中国中央政府提出打造‘孟中印缅经济走廊’,可以看出中国对外开放、寻求海外合作的强烈愿望。”
狄伯杰坦言,虽然大多数印度人希望积极融入“孟中印缅”经济走廊,但由于宏观政策上的不理想,印度对外开放力度还不够。
“这个概念并不新”,狄伯杰说,古代中国的南方丝绸之路就在这个区域形成了一个良好的经济圈,但随着历史的演变逐渐衰落。目前,全球经济重心正向这个区域转移,中国改革开放不断深入,印度、缅甸、孟加拉国也正加快合作步伐,这一个概念的提出又有了新的发展空间。
这四个国家相连,不仅有着经贸往来的悠久历史,也有互补性发展的现状,特别是中印两国的合作更具优势,狄伯杰十分看好孟中印缅的经济合作,“印度在制药、IT产业上有优势,而中国在基础建设、电力、资金上也具很大优势,双方的发展互补性非常强。”
狄伯杰还透露,即将进行的印度大选也可能为印度是否加快融入“孟中印缅”给出答案。另外,印度学者对政府的建言越来越受到重视,而绝大部分学者对印度扩大延边开放,积极融入“孟中印缅”经济走廊持支持的态度。
狄伯杰也相信,随着印度沿边开放力度加大,这个经济圈的建设将会有实质性进展,也将会进一步促进这个区域社会、经济、文化的共同发展。

Does India Have a Dream?





As far as the leadership of a country is concerned, it is vital to have a vision for the future; a vision that holds a very high moral ground and inspires every citizen to participate in the cause of nation building. Both India and China had held that high moral ground during the days of ‘civilization states’ in ancient times, but the same got shattered with the eastward advance of the western imperialism when both were reduced to the status of  colonial and semi-colonial societies, and inflicted on them irreparable damages and injuries through wars of aggression. In the course of struggle to freedom, the national leaders in both the countries right from Sun Yat-sen to Xi Jinping, and from Mahatma Gandhi to Manmohan Singh have been aspiring to rejuvenate respective countries with their versions of dreams. As Xi Jinping’s China Dream narrative gains currency in China and beyond, other emerging economies including India have been trying to construct their own narrative of Indian  dream. So much so during his China visit in October last year when Indian Prime Minister Mr. Singh met the Chinese President Xi Jinping, he told President Xi that the Chinese dream was closely linked with the Indian dream and they fit in with each other. China’s ambassador to India ambassador. Wei Wei resonated similar feeling while writing about Chinese dream in Indian media. Does India really have a dream?

Even if the discourse and narrative of Indian dream has not resonated the same pitch as the Chinese dream has recently, however, the Indian dream comes alive if we glance through pre and post independence history of India. In 1947, as the nation of 400 million people awaited its emergence from the clutches of colonial servitude, everyone cutting across the class, caste and religion aspired for freedom and a hopeful tomorrow. Many of India’s national leaders amidst the freedom struggle foresaw a future for India: an India that would epitomize freedom, peace, prosperity and development. Mahatma Gandhi, the father of Indian nation, and a crusader of non-violence, dreamt of an India ‘free and strong so that she may offer herself a willing and pure sacrifice for the betterment of the world. India’s freedom must revolutionize the world’s outlook upon peace and war.’ This he wrote in Young India in 1925, a weekly magazine published by him. More of Gandhi’s writings and his vision of India were published in a book entitled ‘India of My Dreams’ on 15th August 1947, the day India attained independence.  Obviously, Gandhi did not wish India to be militarily but spiritually strong as he said, ‘India is less in need of steel weapons, it has fought with divine weapons, it can still do so. Other nations have been votaries of brute force. The terrible war going on in Europe furnishes a forcible illustration of the truth. India can win all by soul force. History supplies numerous instances to prove that brute force is as nothing before soul force.’  A few year later in 1931 he wrote about a classless, untouchability free India, in which everyone have an effective voice, an India in which all communities shall live in perfect harmony, an India where women will enjoy the same rights as men.’ He aspired for India’s rise but emphatically said that ‘I do not want India to rise on the ruin of other nations.’

Jawaharlal Nehru, who became the first Prime Minister of Independent India, reciprocated Gandhi’s views on poverty and inequality. In his ‘India’s tryst with destiny’ speech on 15th August 1947, he said ‘the service of India means the service of the millions who suffer. It means the ending of poverty and ignorance and disease and inequality of opportunity.’ Reminding people of Mahatma Gandhi, Nehru said that the ambition of the greatest man of our generation has been to wipe every tear from every eye….And so we have to labor and to work, and work hard, to give reality to our dreams. Those dreams are for India, but they are also for the world, for all the nations and peoples are too closely knit together today....’
In the same vein other Indian leaders such as Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi wished to make India self reliant and poverty free. The ‘president of the people’ and ‘missile man of India’, A P J Abdul Kalam wrote a book entitled India:2020 and vociferously advocated  an action plan to develop India into a strong nation by the year 2020. He perceived India as a knowledge superpower and developed nation, and a future superpower.  In the run up for 2014 parliamentary elections the leaders of various political parties have been talking on the same lines, albeit the under different circumstances.

The main premise behind such a dream has been that India has been a civilizational state with a brilliant past notwithstanding the foreign aggression right from Alexander to the British. India has a strong foundation built with traditions and culture, science and technology.  India’s contribution to the world civilization in the fields of mathematics by discovering zero, its system of ‘Ayurveda’ (Indian medicine), Yoga, Dhyana, international universities like Nalanda that were founded hundreds of years before any university in the western world, great strides in astronomy, philosophy, literature, music and dance are often cited as the examples of its past glory. It is perhaps the supremacy of ancient India that made Mahatma Gandhi to declare that India can ‘win all by soul force’ rather than the brute force. Secondly, in terms of human resources India is strategically poised to reap the demographic dividend. According to 2011 Census, India’s working age population (15-64 years) is now 63.4% of the total.  India’s labor force is expected to be around 526 million in 2011 and 653 million in 2031. According to the Indian Labor Report, 300 million youth would enter the labor force by 2025, and 25% of the world's workers in the next three years would be Indians. If harnessed reasonably it is believed that Indian economy will grow at a faster rate. Thirdly, India holds a great economic promise, for its market is huge with a huge middle class. Some of the sectors that are worth trillions of dollars are information technology, infrastructure, telecom, retail, and health care. Investment and turnaround of these sectors could catapult India to third largest economy in a short span of time.  Fourthly, it is believed that India has soft power in abundance.  Fifthly, India is committed to democratic institutions, robust financial institutions and the rule of law. Finally, with strides in space research and missile technology, its military capabilities are on the rise. However, there are also various constraints that may jeopardize the Indian dream. 

Notwithstanding these promising positives of an Indian dream, yet there are various inherent constraints that may jeopardize the dream of India becoming a prosperous and developed society. First and foremost, unlike India’s ‘missile man’ president Kalam who had envisioned India as a developed nation by 2020, there is a lack of strategic culture or thinking in India. Many in India  agree with George Tanham’s thinking that ‘India is an extraordinarily complex and diverse society, and Indian elites show little evidence of having thought coherently and systematically about national strategy’ albeit India’s top diplomat Shiv Shankar Menon may not agree with such a narrative. Disagreement apart, it is true that various policies between different government departments are often incoherent and the vision very narrow and short.  The sheer absence of a strategic culture and incoherency has undermined India’s civilian and military effectiveness in various ways. The costs in terms of procurement from abroad as well as equipment developed indigenously have increased many folds. For example, the cost of developing Arjun, a main battle tank in India has exceeded the original cost by 20 times, and the procurement of Gorchakov, the aircraft career exceeded by three times of the original cost; same is applicable to various infrastructural projects going on the country.

As far as demographic dividend is concerned, it would be determined by the universality of education amongst the young people. The overall quality of secondary and higher education in India is well below global standards. The kind of capacities that are required for such a ‘dividend’ are missing; for example the much talked Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs) produces a tiny number of graduates and many of them finds their ways to the US and other developed countries upon graduation. China has offered special facilities and packages to attract such oversee Chinese experts and many have found their ways to Chinese universities and research institutes. Other infrastructural problems in educational sector that has cropped up as a result of inadequate spending and poor planning will stifle the chances of any ‘dividend’ we are looking at.

Thirdly, the highly stratified society in terms of religion, languages, caste and class is taking a heavy toll of the overall development in the country. Rather than devising strategies to do away with some of these social ills, the government has been unfolding populist policies in terms of freebies and reservation to certain sections of the society that has bred exclusion and ineffectiveness in various domains.  The leadership, especially in an era of coalition politics in India has little time for long-term goals of national development; the government is busy appeasing the coalition partners, and saving the collapse at any cost that has bred serious corruption on the on hand and political instability on the other.  The ‘license raj’ coupled by unfavorable investment climate has given rise to economic uncertainty, and the once bright prospects of a vibrant economic development seems gloomy. This is discernible from the second term of the UPA government when government was riddled by various scams such as ‘commonwealth Games scam’, ‘Adarsh Housing Society scam’, 2G Spectrum scam’, Coal   Block Distribution Scam’ etc. to name a few.
 
However, irrespective of structural weaknesses, widespread corruption, poor leadership, extreme social divisions, religious extremism and internal security threats, the Indian dream that was aspired by the Indian leadership pre and post independent India has the potential   to be realized, provided certain concerns are addressed. First, continue to achieve the faster economic growth rate, so that the momentum of the rise could be sustained and necessary capital created for allaying various developmental challenges.  Secondly, India need to diversify its access to international energy sources which is extremely important for avoiding domestic socio-political troubles. As it has been seen, arresting inflation has got precedence over various other issues of economic and strategic concerns as the price rise has brought down many governments in India. This would also be crucial for the political stability.  Thirdly, the Indian leadership need to think in long-term planning, I cannot find any parallel to China’s long term developmental vision right from ‘self-strengthening Movement’ of the 1860s  (33 years long) to the ‘three step strategy’ of the late 1980s (67 year long plan) in India. Fourthly, spend more on education and health if India wants to reap ‘demographic dividend.’ Fifthly, India need to expand the depth and breadth of its domestic defense industry, for great-defense capabilities are not built and sustained on foreign procurements. It needs to throw open its defense sector for private investment and foreign collaboration. DRDO may have some feathers in its cap but better could be done. Sixthly, it must create a peaceful neighborhood and avoid confrontation. The best bet would ‘soft balancing’ between various players including the US in the region. Finally, I strongly believe that Indian dream complements the Chinese dream. As India has huge development potentials in the areas of infrastructure and industrialization and lack capital, China could play a positive role in developing capacities in these areas with the experience of its own development and its 3.82 trillion dollar foreign exchange reserves. China is encouraging its companies to invest in India; it is for India to create a favorable investment climate to these companies rather than looking at these with suspicion. Joint initiatives such as  BCIM and Chinese proposals to revive northern and southern silk routes are extremely positive steps that will not only uplift people’s lives but will build bridges between the nations also, therefore, India must contribute positively to these initiatives.

Thursday, March 20, 2014

Henderson Brooks Report on 1962 War: ‘Secrecy’ an Ostrich Act



There is nothing new about the Henderson Brooks- P S Bhagat Report, the only fact that is established by Neville Maxwell by uploading it on his website is that he indeed possessed a copy as was widely believed, for he has vastly quoted from the Report in his book India’s China War published eight years after the 1962 blunder. The Chinese government is also believed to own a copy as is clear from the books written in Chinese on 1962. Therefore, to keep the Report a ‘top secret’ as is the case with other archival documents pertaining to British India and Tibet is indeed an ostrich act.  Declassifying the Report will demonstrate the willingness of the government to learn from our past mistakes, that it is ready to overhaul country’s defence strategies and preparedness as well as incoherent policy decisions between various ministries and departments.  Therefore, the government must declassify it in supreme national interest.

Maxwell has held the prematurely conceived ‘forward policy’ of India as a culprit for the war, where as he has maintained a silence on the changing border lines in the Western Sector, especially the 1960 claim line by China. He had no answer for the same when he visited my department in late 80s. Therefore, in order to understand the matrix of ‘forward policy’ it is imperative to understand the overall border situation prevalent at that point in time.  The situation on the borders had deteriorated drastically in the wake of Sino-Indian agreement of 1954 and had culminated in the Konka and Longju bloody incidents on Western and Eastern Sectors. The Tibetan revolt and the flight of the Dalai Lama in 1959 added fuel to the fire. The opportunity of reaching out a settlement when Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai visited India in 1960 was lost as India was not willing to negotiate the undemarcated and undefined border.

In the face of such a hostile coexistence, China built up its defenses and enhanced communication links in the border areas. Apart from building Aksai Chin Road, Shi (1992: 163) tells us that “By May 1960 a road connecting western Tibet with the Indian border was completed. A network of roads connecting Lhasa to Thagla Ridge was also completed and huge quantities of military supplies found their way to the border.” In the Western Sector, beside Aksai Chin Highway, Lanak La was connected to Kongka by roads. After the failure of official level talks, the Chinese opened new posts at Nyagzu and Dambuguru. In 1961 these posts were connected to Khurnak Fort and Kongka La by constructing a road. Another road connected Rudok with Spanggur was also completed. The Chinese also started construction work on three new roads in Ladakh. One from Samzungling along the Galwan river; another from Khurnak Fort to the vicinity of the Sirijap; and the third from Spanggur to Shinzang along the southern bank of Spanggur lake (Manekar 1968: 38, 41).  Nyagzu and Dambuguru were converted into military bases in 1961.

By mid 1960, China established three regimental headquarters, one at Qizil Jilga, another near Lanak La and a third at Rudok. According to Mullik (1971: 313), the then Director of Indian Intelligence, by October 1961 China had established 61 new posts – seven in Ladakh, fourteen opposite the Central Sector, twelve facing Sikkim in the Chumbi Valley, three opposite Bhutan and twenty-five across NEFA border. According to Mullik, seven new roads constructed in the Indian territory were close to the Central Sector border and eight to the border in the Eastern Sector. China was seriously preparing for war; on the other hand India was clueless as regards how to calibrate  its border policy, the response came in the form of ill fated ‘forward policy’.

In order to counter the Chinese incursions, India according to Prasad (1992: 65, emphasis added) prepared an appreciation of the threat posed by the Chinese in September 1959. It deduced that with present state of development it is unlikely that the Chinese can launch a major incursion on any part of the country or create a situation where there is a likelihood of major operations taking place. However, it was also stated that “the intentions of [the Chinese] coming over Himalayas onto our side is apparent.” Based on the assessment of the Chinese strength across the border, the appreciation recommended positioning of troops in various sectors to counter the Chinese threat. The recommendations could not be implemented immediately due to logistic problems; moreover, the Indian leadership also shared the view that China would not resort to a large-scale aggression. It was after the Kongka Pass incident that the Eastern Sector was put under army command and construction of roads given high priority from early 1960 with the establishment of General Reserve Engineering Force (GREF).

The so-called ‘forward policy’ was crystallised in a high level meeting under Prime Minister Nehru on 2 November 1961. The meeting was attended by Defence Minister, Krishna Menon, Foreign Secretary, M. J Desai, Chief of the Army Staff, General P. N. Thapar, Lt. General Kaul, Director Intelligence Bureau, B. N. Mullik, Brigadier Palit and other officials. The government directive  (Maxwell 1970: 221-22; Mullik 1971: 314 emphasis added) that was issued after this meeting envisaged:

a)      So far as Ladakh is concerned, we are to patrol as far forward as possible from our present positions towards the international border.
b)      As regards UP [Uttar Pradesh, now Uttranchal in Middle Sector] and other northern areas. We should as far as practicable, go forward and be in effective occupation of the whole frontier. Where there are any gaps, they must be covered either by patrolling or by posts.
c)      In view of the numerous operational and administrative difficulties, efforts should be made to position major concentration of forces along our borders in places conveniently situated behind the forward posts from where they should be maintained logistically and from where they can restore a border situation at short notice.  

It could be gleaned from this government directive that in wake of the Chinese advances it was construed that the ‘forward policy’ would prevent the Chinese to occupy more ‘Indian territories.’ This in other words implied that India would violate the status quo on boundary and move into the area it considered belonged to India. However, the notion was formulated on the ill-conceived apprehensions that China would not retaliate. Moreover, most of the forward posts were dependent on air dropped supplies due to poor communication and logistic problems. As recorded by Prasad at al. (1992: 69), the troops were dispersed into small, isolated posts each barely 10-20 [men] strong. The posts acted as “flag posts” merely to show physical presence of the Indian troops. Not getting involved with the Chinese was also ill conceived notion, for according to China’s interpretations of international border India had occupied vast areas of ‘Chinese territory’ and was determined to eject India from these areas as was witnessed in Longju and Kongka Pass incidents.   Prasad (1992: 70-71) quoting official records notes that by the end of September 1962, 36 Indian posts [43 according to China as on 20 October, Shi 1992:155; Yang 1992: 308] were established in Ladakh as against 47 set up by the Chinese in the area. In the Eastern Sector, 34 new posts were established by 20 July 1962. In this process some of the posts established by India actually crossed the McMahon Line; India ignored the line on the ground and followed the watershed principle. According to Chinese interpretation (Yang 1992: 306), India establishing check posts in between already established Chinese posts and sending forward patrols was aimed to cut the supply routes of the Chinese posts and force them to withdraw in a “Napoleonic victory style.”

China reacted sharply to the Indian forward policy, especially in the Western Sector. In a note of 30 November 1961 (White Paper VI: 3-4, 15), China protested Indian attempts “to realise its territorial claims unilaterally and by force” and threatened that if India did not stop its moves in Western Sector, China would be forced to cross the so called “McMahon Line.” In another note on 1 March 1962, China accused India of refusing to hold the negotiations and “continuing its illegal occupation of the so-called McMahon Line in the Eastern Sector,” while demanding that China withdraw from its own territory in the Western Sector. India refuted Chinese charges in a note on 13 March 1962 and expressed that it was not averse to negotiations provided China vacate the Indian territory it occupied since 1957 (White Paper VI: 18). India argued that the status quo of 1957 would be an essential step for the creation of a favourable climate for any negotiations on border by India and China. In another note of 14 May 1962, India urged China “to give serious consideration to the offer made in the Indian Prime Minister’s letter dated 16 November 1959 to Premier Chou [Zhou] Enlai, which inter alia proposed as an interim measure that, in the Ladakh region, the Government of India should withdraw their personnel to the west of the line shown in the 1956 Chinese map, and the Government of China should withdraw their personnel to the east of the international boundary shown in the Indian official maps (White Paper VI: 43).” India also stated that the adoption of this suggestion would lead to the relaxation of tension in this border region and creates the necessary atmosphere for the settlement of the boundary problem by negotiations and discussions. China spurned the Indian proposal and reiterated its earlier position that for China it would mean to evacuate some 33,000 square kilometres of its own territory, while India would have withdrawn from only a few points occupied by it more recently (White Paper VI: 57). China also stated that it was willing to consider the Indian proposal provided India withdraws from Eastern Sector to the south of the line shown in the Chinese maps.

The stream of notes continued between India and China but both parties were reluctant to compromise on their stated positions. On ground, the Chinese increased their troop deployment in all the sectors. By the beginning of September 1962, China had deployed 6 battalions along the northern frontier; in Eastern Sector some 19 battalions were deployed. Six battalions were deployed in Ladakh facing the Middle Sector, besides many battalions were kept ready as reserves (Prasad 1992: 74-75). From July onward, China started directly intimidating Indian posts by surrounding them and opening fire at them. Starting from 10 July 1962, the Chinese troops surrounded an Indian post in Galwan and cut the supply route of this post for several days. This incident was followed by Chinese firing at many other posts including Daulat Beg Oldi camp on 21 July and 4 August 1962. On 8 September 1962 the Chinese troops surrounded Dhola [Chedong] and attempted to blow it up with grenades on 20 September. On 9th September India 1962 in a high level meeting in the Ministry of Defence presided by Defence Minister, Krishna Menon and attended by Chief of the Army Staff, General P. N. Thapar, General Officer Commanding (GOC) Eastern Command, Lt. General L. P. Sen, Cabinet Secretary S. S. Khera, B. N. Mullik and a few others, it was decided that the Chinese must be evicted from south of the Thag La Ridge immediately and by force if necessary (Prasad 1992: 94-95). The operation was code named “Leghorn.” Orders to this effect were immediately flashed to GOC XXXIII Corps, Lt. General Umrao Singh, Divisional Commander, Major General Niranjan Prasad and others to put the operation in effect. This would mean that the Indian forces in Eastern Sector would go on offensive and India should be prepared for a bigger conflict with China.

According to Lt General B. M Kaul (Kaul 1967: 356), a relative of Nehru who has also been indicted by Henderson writes that when order reached the concerned officers they expressed their inability to carry out the order in face of comparatively adverse build up, limited reinforcement ability in view of the lack of troops and roads, shortage of ration, winter clothes, ammunition, and inadequacy of fire support. The officers squarely put it forth that “the task of clearing the Chinese south of Thag La Ridge was beyond the capability of our troops.” However, irrespective of outmoded equipments, logistic and communication problems, and sheer numerical superiority of the Chinese forces, the Indian government pushed Indian forces to a vulnerable position and announced publicly on 18 September that the Army had been instructed to drive the Chinese out of the Dho La [Chedong according to China] in Thag La area. Going by the Simla Convention map, Dho La stood north of the McMahon Line. The army also discussed this issue in a meeting held at Tezpur, Assam on 13 September 1962. It was raised that the available maps with the Army showed McMahon Line running south of the Thagla Ridge. On 3 October 1962, Lt.General Kaul, who had no combat experience, was made Commander of the IV Corps, a newly raised Corps. The responsibility of evicting the Chinese was transferred to this Corps from the XXXIII Corps and General Umrao Singh was divested of the responsibility for Eastern Sector. With Lt. General Kaul’s adventurism, Indian forces, clad in cotton uniforms in biting cold and frost in the Himalayas with pouch ammunition set off to “evict” the Chinese in the Eastern Sector which had remained generally calm except a few incidents near the McMahon Line.

It could be gleaned from these facts that the collision course was set in a self-destructive move. It was foolish to think that the Chinese would not launch a massive strike in the territory they considered belonged to them.  According to a Chinese account (Shi 1992: 210-11) India shot dead two Chinese soldiers on 20 September 1962 in picket south of the Bridge II on Namka Chu river [called Kejilang river by the Chinese]. This according to China was the first incident of firing by Indian troops in the Eastern Sector, which broke the dead silence of the Namka Chu area.  In another meeting in September Mao, Lin Biao, Zhou Enlai and Chen Yi deliberated on “Operation Leghorn” and reported a possible date of Indian action as 10 October 1962. Mao was furious and spoke emphatically, ‘we have fought with Chiang [Kai-shek], the Japanese and the American, and have never been cowed down, rather we have defeated them all. If the Indian people want to fight us, of course we are not afraid. We will not compromise; compromise would mean the occupation of an area equal to Fujian province [of China].” Zhou added, “We do not want to fight a war with India, we had all along endeavoured and hoped that we would solve our boundary issue with India in a friendly manner as we have done with Nepal, Burma and Mongolia etc. countries. But Nehru has shut all the doors for such a resolution; the only option left out by him is the war. I think to fight a bit has also its advantages, it could prove an eye opener to some people.” 

In a broadcast to the nation on 22 October, Nehru called on the people to face united “the greatest menace that has come to us since we became independent.” The Chinese assault, said the Prime Minister “…brought us, made us realise, that we were getting out of touch with realities in the modern world. We were living in an artificial atmosphere of our own creation and we have been shocked out of it...” 50 years down the line, it appears that India is still out of touch with the realities in the era of information age; we are still living in the artificial atmosphere of ‘secrecy’ hope it does not take us another blunder to be shocked out of it!


References:

Kaul, B M (1967) The Untold Story, Allied Publishers, Bombay
Manekar, D. R (1968). The Guilty Men of 1962. Tulsishah Enterprises, Bombay
Maxwell, Neville (1970). India’s China War. Jonathan Cape Limited, London.
Mullik, B. N (1971). My Years with Nehru, the Chinese Betrayal. Allied Publishers, New Delhi.
Prasad, S. N ed. (1992). History of the Conflict with China, 1962, (unpublished report). History Division. Ministry of Defence, Government of India, New Delhi.
Shi, Bo 师博 (1993). 1962:中印大战纪实1962: zhongyin dazhan jishi (1962: Records of Sino-Indian War). Chinese Earth (Zhongguo Dadi) Publishers, Beijing.
White Papers [Notes, memoranda and letters exchanged and agreement signed between the Governments of India and China], White Paper No. II, September-November 1959; No. III, November 1959-March 1960; No. IV, March-November 1960; No. V, November 1960-November 1961; No. VI, November 1961-July 1962; No. VII, July-October 1962; No. VIII, October 1962-January 1963; No. IX, January-July 1963. Government of India Press, New Delhi.
Yang, Gongsu 杨公素(1992). 中国反对外国侵略干涉西藏地方斗争史  zhongguo fandui waiguo qinlue ganshe xizang difang douzhengshi ( History of China’s Struggle and Resistance to the Foreign Invasion and interference in Tibet). China’s Tibetology Publications, Beijing.


Wednesday, March 5, 2014

On Li Keqiang’s Government Work Report 2014



Premier Li’s government work report at Wednesday’s opening session of China’s annual session of the National People’s Congress comes three days after the Kunming railway station carnage allegedly carried out by the militants from the restive region of Xinjiang. The meeting attended by about 3,000 deputies observed a moment of silence for the victims of the attack, and Li reiterated President Xi JInping’s remarks that China would ‘crack down hard on violent crimes of terrorism’ and safeguard China’s national security. 

Premier Li’s report is divided into three parts: 2013 in retrospect; major targets for 2014; and major tasks for 2014. As regards the economic performance in 2013, Li’s said that ‘over the past year, we faced more difficulties than expected, however, the results were better than we expected.’ China had set a target of 7.5% growth rate but achieved 7.7% growth rate catapulting the GDP to 56.9 trillion yuan ($9.1 trillion). The per capita disposable income of urban residents also rose by around 7 percent. In contrast the per capita income of rural residents rose by 9.3 percent. For the first time in Chinese economic history the service sector surpassed the industrial sector, contributing 46.1 percent to the GDP. In the urbanization drive, China undertook to build 6.6 million units of subsidized houses of which 5.4 million were completed; 7 million more would be built in 2014. The austerity drive in terms of government spending on transport, banquets and foreign tours that was initiated by President Xi after assuming office, Li reported that the central government spending was cut by 35% and that of provincial governments’ by 26%. It is another story that the drive have shut down many businesses catering to such services, as was revealed to this author by some friends while in China. Austerity drive apart, China has contributed to the stabilization of world economy, especially when many countries across the world are reeling under the wrath of global economic meltdown. 

As far as the year 2014 is concerned, GDP growth has been projected at about 7.5%. Li has intended to create 10 million urban jobs in this year and restrict the urban unemployment rate at a maximum 4.6%. The budget deficit is projected to be $218 billion accounting for 2.1% of the GDP. Nine major tasks outlined for the year 2014, are in sync with the general debate on development in China. These include breakthroughs in reform in important areas, fostering domestic demand as the main engine of growth, agricultural modernization, people-centered urbanization, accelerating the development of education, health, culture etc. Li has also promised to cancel or delegate to lower-level governments another 200 administrative approvals in addition to last year’s 400 and more approvals. In order to bring in more transparency, the central and provincial governments would be required to make their budgets and accounts open to the public. Some of the state sectors such as banking, oil, power, railway and telecommunications would be opened for private investment. In order to facilitate e-governance and e-commerce, Li promised to speed up 4G mobile networks and further build 100M fiber optic networks in cities and extend broadband connectivity to villages.

It could be discerned that the present government is in sync with the policies of the previous governments. We may recollect that former Premier Wen Jiabao had regarded the 12th Five Year Plan (2011-2015) as a crucial period for building a modest well off society, deepening the reforms, and accelerating transformation of the economic development in China. China, he said would moves away from the labor intensive industries to the high end manufacturing and service industries. China would like to shed the image of being viewed as the ‘world factory’ and venture in becoming the R&D hub of the world. To this end, 2.2% of the GDP has been earmarked for R&D since 2011 and has shown a steady increase since then. Wen had also pledged to build 36 million affordable apartments for low-income people, and the creation of 9 million jobs in the year after year starting from 2011. Wen had projected a growth rate of 7% during the 12th Five Year Plan. He had projected that by 2015 China’s GDP at 2010 prices should reach over 55 trillion yuan (over 8 trillion USD). If one glance over the statistics, it is clear that objectives have been realized two years in advance. According to a study conducted by Price Waterhouse Cooper, China will be the largest economy in the world by 2020 and will replace the US by 2030. Therefore, there will be major shifts in the world economic order by 2020 in which emerging economies will become more important thus further enhancing their economic as well as political clout at the world stage. 

Chinese analysts have summarized the characteristics of the Government Work Report in three Chinese characters as ruthlessness () stabilization (), and pragmatism (). Ruthlessness, have been used to get rid of any hurdle in the way of deepening reforms. Decentralization of government responsibilities and opening some of the state owned monoliths for private investment is an indication to this fact. Ruthlessness is also demonstrative of defusing the popular discontent in the face unequal income distribution, air pollution and other environmental hazards. Premier Li used the words ‘declaration of war’, implying ‘war’ on poverty, and environmental issues; his government’s resolve to shut down 50,000 small coal-fueled furnaces, and installation of desulphurization facilities in thermal power plants with the capacity of 15 million kw, denitrification facilities in plants with 130 million kw of production capacity, and installing dust control device on those with the 180-million-kw capacity are some of the tasks outlined for this year. Also, around 6 million old vehicles will be banned from the road. Transparency in spending ‘public funds’ could be said another measure linked to ‘ruthlessness’. The ‘strike hard’ campaigns against separatism, terrorism and prostitution could also be put in this category. 

As far as ‘stabilization’ is concerned, it is primarily used in the context of macro-control measures and policy continuity. In Li’s words China will not take short-term stimulus measures, will not broaden deficit, will restrict excess supply of money, and will save the economy from sliding off the track.’ Consumer Price Index would be stabilized at 3.5% and unemployment at 4.6%. As import and export growth is expected around 7.5% it has been stressed to stabilize and improve the export policies; as far as investment is concerned, Premier Li has earmarked 457.6 billion yuan of government budget for investment. Besides, domestic consumption would be enhanced by increasing the income levels of the people thus bringing even larger sections of the people under the folds of middle class. 

As regards ‘pragmatism’, it is the same euphemism described by ‘seeking truth from the facts’ phrase often used by Deng Xiaoping. Premier Li reiterated that the foundations of Chinese economy were not solid, there were potential risks in the financial sector, and that there are issues related to overcapacity in some sectors. Issues related to water and soil pollution, housing, food and drug safety, health care, pension, education, income distribution, land acquisition, resettlement, and social security required new measures and solutions, for these are the issues that are very crucial for overall social stability in China. It has been seen that China is extremely nervous about any public protest, and most of the protests have been rooted in expanding social imbalances, especially the rural urban divide, official highhandedness, corruption, violation of laws, land fragmentation, land acquisition leading to forced evictions, unemployment, unnecessary cadre strength in the countryside, environmental hazards etc. issues.  

As regards national defense, Premier Li has increased military budget for 2014 to $132 billion, a 12.2% rise over 2013.  In 2013 it increased by 10.7% over 2012. China is the second largest spender on military after the US albeit the US spends over $500 billion on defense. Some analysts speculate that the real defense budget of China should be around $200 billion and believe that more transparency is required from China. This year’s rise is particularly watched with great interest in the wake of China –Japan hostilities flare over Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. The region as well as the US has expressed concern over Chinese assertiveness and growing tension in the region. In his report Li said that ‘China will comprehensively enhance the revolutionary nature of the Chinese armed forces, further modernize them and upgrade their performance, and continue to raise their deterrence and combat capabilities under the conditions of infomatization.’

As far as India is concerned there is one reference in terms of BCIM economic corridor along with China-Pak economic corridor and the revival of ‘sea silk route.’ This demonstrates that China is extremely serious about establishing these corridors and further economic integration with the region. The delegation of responsibilities to provinces should also be seen in this light. China has declared Yunnan as the gateway to South Asian integration. The BCIM initiative was put on the India-China joint statement during Li Keqiang’s India visit in May 2013. Since then one round of talks have been held in Kunming in December 2013, the second and third round would be held in 2014 in Bangladesh and Delhi respectively. 

During the talks in Beijing it was said that the corridor will establish “advance multi-modal connectivity, harness the economic complementarities, promote investment and trade and facilitate people-to-people contacts.” It was agreed that as a first step, the four countries will identify realistic and achievable infrastructure projects to boost physical connectivity. In the second round each country will come up with a joint study report proposing concrete projects and financing modalities. By the time the parties meet in India the four countries will have agreed upon a cooperation framework.  The general consensus is that at the outset integrated transport network such as rails, roads, aviation, water transport, pipelines, and telecommunications need to be strengthened. All other initiatives such as Kolkota-Kunming sister cities, Ganga-Mekong initiative and track 2 K2K (Kolkata-Kunming) initiatives will get a further push as the initiatives have been supported by both the governments.   These are the initiatives that will act as a continental bridge between the Indian and Pacific oceans and integrate China, South Asia and Southeast Asian markets. If realized, the corridor will promote social and economic development in the region.   

Finally, the Chinese premier promises to be the standard bearer of peace, development and harmony. He also invoked 2014 being the 60th anniversary of the Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence. He pledged to hold high the banner of peace but also vowed to resolutely safeguard its sovereignty and the postwar international order, a veiled warning to Japan that it should not try to change the status quo in the region. The report said that China will resolutely safeguard its sovereignty, security and development interests, and fully protect the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese citizens and business overseas, and that China will play a constructive role in resolving global and hotspot issues and work to make the international order more just and equitable