India-US Relations: Hard to tell which way the wind will blow?

The outgoing US Defense Secretary, Aston Carter included India in his last overseas trip besides the close allies of the US such as Japan, Bahrain, Israel, Italy and the UK. He will reach India on 8 December and will hold wide ranging discussions with Indian Defense Minister, Manohar Parrikar and other leaders. Strategic and technological cooperation between India and the US has been at its best during Carter’s tenure, which saw both inking the landmark Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) and India joining the Missile Technology Control Regime.

Ahead of his India visit, speaking at the Regan National Defense Forum in Simi Valley, California on 4 December, Carter said, “The US-India defense relationship is the closest it’s ever been. Through our strategic handshake – with America reaching west in the re-balance, and India reaching east in what Prime Minister Modi calls his Act East policy – our two nations are exercising together by air, land and sea like never before.” As regards technological cooperation, he said, “We also have a technological handshake — as the US — India Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI), grasps hands with Prime Minister Modi's Make in India campaign — that's helping our countries move toward more diverse co-development and co-production of weapons systems.” Though the agenda of Carter’s this visit appears to be limited, no progress is expected on the two pending foundational agreements – the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) and Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) that would have enabled both countries to exchange communication between the militaries, and the sharing of geospatial data. However, it is speculated that the agenda may include M777 and Predator Guardian for the Indian Navy.

Yet, with president-elect Donald Trump in White House from mid January, there are anxieties in the power corridors in both the countries albeit it has been expected that strategic, economic and technological partnership between India and the US will be further consolidated and the labor Carter has put in will not be lost. Since Major Defense Partner (MDP) status bestowed by the US on India, a nomenclature exclusively created for India, and the (LEMOA) remains in limbo and non-operational, and uncertainties outweighs the optimism as of now. Especially when Trump has picked up Lt. Gen James “Mad Dog” Mattis for the office of Defense Secretary, who, is thought to be inclined favorably towards Pakistan, as has been demonstrated when he headed the US Central Command from 2010 to 2013.

However, Pakistani establishment having written off the US as a declining power and having embraced China even tightly may change such an equation, nonetheless, Pakistan will work hard to encash Mattis’ goodwill. If General Mattis is favorably inclined towards Pakistan, India has found solace in the new National Security Adviser, General Michael Flynn, a former Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency who have vociferously spoken about Pakistan’s betrayal of the US and sheltering of terrorists by the former. Moreover, as Trump’s domestic and foreign policy is being speculated to be that of retrenchment and de-escalation, the US would no longer be a cash cow, not even to its allies. Furthermore, in strategic circles in India, India-US relationship has long been de-hyphenated from Pakistan, albeit it has been increasingly looked through the prism of China.

More than these speculations, during Carter’s visit, both sides are likely to discuss the impact of the political transition in Washington on the strategic and technological cooperation between the two. It is widely believed that both sides would continue to work along the institutional mechanisms such as the DTTI and MDP created during the Obama administration. It is also believed that Prime Minister Modi has established a good rapport with president-elect Trump. Modi’s take on the transition was that there is no reason to apprehend any dramatic change in bilateral relations. He believes that Trump would be favorably inclined towards India. Yet, it is too early to predict the unpredictable Trump, it is hard to tell which way the wind will blow, therefore, one really needs to wait and watch!