China’s ‘technical
hold’ on India's move to put a ban on the Jaish-e-Mohammed leader Maulana
Masood Azhar under the 1267 Sanctions
Committee of the UN expires on 31 December. China could either let the ‘hold’
lapse or ‘block’ the move. In former’s case move will put a ban on Azhar, and
in latter’s case save him from the sanctions. If China let the hold lapse, it
will demonstrate a shift in China’s stand on terrorism vis-a-vis India and
Pakistan, and its intention to push India-China relations to new heights. It
will also earn huge goodwill in India and the stereotype image of China in
India may change for better. Conversely, if it blocks the move, rather than
earning goodwill, its image as a troublemaker rather as the supporter of cross
border terror in the subcontinent will be too obvious to the Indian people,
which in effect will further jeopardize bilateral relations. Will China change
its course on cross border terror?
I believe, given China’s
huge stakes in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and its eagerness to
collaborate with India on various projects that could well form part of the
ambitious Belt and Road initiative, China may change its course. On 28 December
2016 former Chinese consulate general in Kolkata, Mao Siwei indicated in an
article on his blog that ‘China must hold high moral ground’ as regards
counter terrorism spat between India and Pakistan. He argued
that “it is time for China to list Masood Azhar in 1267 terror list respecting
the sentiments of 1.3 billion Indian people, and tell the world that it would
like to play a responsible role in the global governance, at the same time will
indicate to Pakistan that no doubt we are iron brothers but don't fish in the
troubled waters!’ These are perhaps succinct, straightforward yet strongest
words coming from a former Chinese diplomat and a columnist in China. He argues
that Indian Prime Minister Modi’s goodwill visit to Pakistani Prime Minister
Sharif was responded to an attack on the Pathankot Air Base by the ‘non-state
armed group’ thus scuttling the reconciliations before it could kick off. He says, ‘this incident proved once again that Pakistan's non-state
armed groups do have the capacity to influence the state-to-state relations
between India and Pakistan.’
The former diplomat posits that ‘the
issue of sanctions against Azhar has became a major issue affecting Sino-Indian
relations.’ According to him, the issue is an important factor for the decline
of Sino-Indian relations in 2016. Giving minute details of terror activities of
the Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed right from the attack on the Indian
Parliament in 2001, Mumbai terror attack which he terms as India’s 9.11, to
this year’s Pathankot attack, and the formation of the 1267 Sanction Committee
of the UN and the role China played in it since its inception, he posits that
‘it is the time that China must take advantage of the Indian move, give it a
serious thought, adjust China’s position, and get out of the diplomatic
passivity that 1267 list has put China in. China adjusting its position
will send very positive signals to all the parties concerned. ‘As regards
Pakistan, China cherishes its strategic partnership with Pakistan, but also
urges it not to fish in the troubled waters; as far as India is concerned, China’s
desire to develop friendly relations with India is sincere, and that it attaches
importance to the sentiments of 1.3 billion Indian people; and to the world, China
will demonstrate that it is a responsible major power, willing to play more
active role in global governance.’
If China readjusts it
position, we will find an upward movement in India-China relations, and perhaps
the initiation of dialogue process with Pakistan too. Also, the counter terrorism engagement with China could be deepened. Above all, the goodwill China will
earn in India will necessarily translate into greater level of economic
engagement between the two.
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