Does India Have a Dream?

As far as the leadership of a country is concerned, it is vital to have a vision for the future; a vision that holds a very high moral ground and inspires every citizen to participate in the cause of nation building. Both India and China had held that high moral ground during the days of ‘civilization states’ in ancient times, but the same got shattered with the eastward advance of the western imperialism when both were reduced to the status of  colonial and semi-colonial societies, and inflicted on them irreparable damages and injuries through wars of aggression. In the course of struggle to freedom, the national leaders in both the countries right from Sun Yat-sen to Xi Jinping, and from Mahatma Gandhi to Manmohan Singh have been aspiring to rejuvenate respective countries with their versions of dreams. As Xi Jinping’s China Dream narrative gains currency in China and beyond, other emerging economies including India have been trying to construct their own narrative of Indian  dream. So much so during his China visit in October last year when Indian Prime Minister Mr. Singh met the Chinese President Xi Jinping, he told President Xi that the Chinese dream was closely linked with the Indian dream and they fit in with each other. China’s ambassador to India ambassador. Wei Wei resonated similar feeling while writing about Chinese dream in Indian media. Does India really have a dream?

Even if the discourse and narrative of Indian dream has not resonated the same pitch as the Chinese dream has recently, however, the Indian dream comes alive if we glance through pre and post independence history of India. In 1947, as the nation of 400 million people awaited its emergence from the clutches of colonial servitude, everyone cutting across the class, caste and religion aspired for freedom and a hopeful tomorrow. Many of India’s national leaders amidst the freedom struggle foresaw a future for India: an India that would epitomize freedom, peace, prosperity and development. Mahatma Gandhi, the father of Indian nation, and a crusader of non-violence, dreamt of an India ‘free and strong so that she may offer herself a willing and pure sacrifice for the betterment of the world. India’s freedom must revolutionize the world’s outlook upon peace and war.’ This he wrote in Young India in 1925, a weekly magazine published by him. More of Gandhi’s writings and his vision of India were published in a book entitled ‘India of My Dreams’ on 15^th August 1947, the day India attained independence.  Obviously, Gandhi did not wish India to be militarily but spiritually strong as he said, ‘India is less in need of steel weapons, it has fought with divine weapons, it can still do so. Other nations have been votaries of brute force. The terrible war going on in Europe furnishes a forcible illustration of the truth. India can win all by soul force. History supplies numerous instances to prove that brute force is as nothing before soul force.’  A few year later in 1931 he wrote about a classless, untouchability free India, in which everyone have an effective voice, an India in which all communities shall live in perfect harmony, an India where women will enjoy the same rights as men.’ He aspired for India’s rise but emphatically said that ‘I do not want India to rise on the ruin of other nations.’

Jawaharlal Nehru, who became the first Prime Minister of Independent India, reciprocated Gandhi’s views on poverty and inequality. In his ‘India’s tryst with destiny’ speech on 15^th August 1947, he said ‘the service of India means the service of the millions who suffer. It means the ending of poverty and ignorance and disease and inequality of opportunity.’ Reminding people of Mahatma Gandhi, Nehru said that the ambition of the greatest man of our generation has been to wipe every tear from every eye….And so we have to labor and to work, and work hard, to give reality to our dreams. Those dreams are for India, but they are also for the world, for all the nations and peoples are too closely knit together today....’

In the same vein other Indian leaders such as Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi wished to make India self reliant and poverty free. The ‘president of the people’ and ‘missile man of India’, A P J Abdul Kalam wrote a book entitled India:2020 and vociferously advocated  an action plan to develop India into a strong nation by the year 2020. He perceived India as a knowledge superpower and developed nation, and a future superpower.  In the run up for 2014 parliamentary elections the leaders of various political parties have been talking on the same lines, albeit the under different circumstances.

The main premise behind such a dream has been that India has been a civilizational state with a brilliant past notwithstanding the foreign aggression right from Alexander to the British. India has a strong foundation built with traditions and culture, science and technology.  India’s contribution to the world civilization in the fields of mathematics by discovering zero, its system of ‘Ayurveda’ (Indian medicine), Yoga, Dhyana, international universities like Nalanda that were founded hundreds of years before any university in the western world, great strides in astronomy, philosophy, literature, music and dance are often cited as the examples of its past glory. It is perhaps the supremacy of ancient India that made Mahatma Gandhi to declare that India can ‘win all by soul force’ rather than the brute force. Secondly, in terms of human resources India is strategically poised to reap the demographic dividend. According to 2011 Census, India’s working age population (15-64 years) is now 63.4% of the total.  India’s labor force is expected to be around 526 million in 2011 and 653 million in 2031. According to the Indian Labor Report, 300 million youth would enter the labor force by 2025, and 25% of the world's workers in the next three years would be Indians. If harnessed reasonably it is believed that Indian economy will grow at a faster rate. Thirdly, India holds a great economic promise, for its market is huge with a huge middle class. Some of the sectors that are worth trillions of dollars are information technology, infrastructure, telecom, retail, and health care. Investment and turnaround of these sectors could catapult India to third largest economy in a short span of time.  Fourthly, it is believed that India has soft power in abundance.  Fifthly, India is committed to democratic institutions, robust financial institutions and the rule of law. Finally, with strides in space research and missile technology, its military capabilities are on the rise. However, there are also various constraints that may jeopardize the Indian dream. 

Notwithstanding these promising positives of an Indian dream, yet there are various inherent constraints that may jeopardize the dream of India becoming a prosperous and developed society. First and foremost, unlike India’s ‘missile man’ president Kalam who had envisioned India as a developed nation by 2020, there is a lack of strategic culture or thinking in India. Many in India  agree with George Tanham’s thinking that ‘India is an extraordinarily complex and diverse society, and Indian elites show little evidence of having thought coherently and systematically about national strategy’ albeit India’s top diplomat Shiv Shankar Menon may not agree with such a narrative. Disagreement apart, it is true that various policies between different government departments are often incoherent and the vision very narrow and short.  The sheer absence of a strategic culture and incoherency has undermined India’s civilian and military effectiveness in various ways. The costs in terms of procurement from abroad as well as equipment developed indigenously have increased many folds. For example, the cost of developing Arjun, a main battle tank in India has exceeded the original cost by 20 times, and the procurement of Gorchakov, the aircraft career exceeded by three times of the original cost; same is applicable to various infrastructural projects going on the country.

As far as demographic dividend is concerned, it would be determined by the universality of education amongst the young people. The overall quality of secondary and higher education in India is well below global standards. The kind of capacities that are required for such a ‘dividend’ are missing; for example the much talked Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs) produces a tiny number of graduates and many of them finds their ways to the US and other developed countries upon graduation. China has offered special facilities and packages to attract such oversee Chinese experts and many have found their ways to Chinese universities and research institutes. Other infrastructural problems in educational sector that has cropped up as a result of inadequate spending and poor planning will stifle the chances of any ‘dividend’ we are looking at.

Thirdly, the highly stratified society in terms of religion, languages, caste and class is taking a heavy toll of the overall development in the country. Rather than devising strategies to do away with some of these social ills, the government has been unfolding populist policies in terms of freebies and reservation to certain sections of the society that has bred exclusion and ineffectiveness in various domains.  The leadership, especially in an era of coalition politics in India has little time for long-term goals of national development; the government is busy appeasing the coalition partners, and saving the collapse at any cost that has bred serious corruption on the on hand and political instability on the other.  The ‘license raj’ coupled by unfavorable investment climate has given rise to economic uncertainty, and the once bright prospects of a vibrant economic development seems gloomy. This is discernible from the second term of the UPA government when government was riddled by various scams such as ‘commonwealth Games scam’, ‘Adarsh Housing Society scam’, 2G Spectrum scam’, Coal   Block Distribution Scam’ etc. to name a few.

 

However, irrespective of structural weaknesses, widespread corruption, poor leadership, extreme social divisions, religious extremism and internal security threats, the Indian dream that was aspired by the Indian leadership pre and post independent India has the potential   to be realized, provided certain concerns are addressed. First, continue to achieve the faster economic growth rate, so that the momentum of the rise could be sustained and necessary capital created for allaying various developmental challenges.  Secondly, India need to diversify its access to international energy sources which is extremely important for avoiding domestic socio-political troubles. As it has been seen, arresting inflation has got precedence over various other issues of economic and strategic concerns as the price rise has brought down many governments in India. This would also be crucial for the political stability.  Thirdly, the Indian leadership need to think in long-term planning, I cannot find any parallel to China’s long term developmental vision right from ‘self-strengthening Movement’ of the 1860s  (33 years long) to the ‘three step strategy’ of the late 1980s (67 year long plan) in India. Fourthly, spend more on education and health if India wants to reap ‘demographic dividend.’ Fifthly, India need to expand the depth and breadth of its domestic defense industry, for great-defense capabilities are not built and sustained on foreign procurements. It needs to throw open its defense sector for private investment and foreign collaboration. DRDO may have some feathers in its cap but better could be done. Sixthly, it must create a peaceful neighborhood and avoid confrontation. The best bet would ‘soft balancing’ between various players including the US in the region. Finally, I strongly believe that Indian dream complements the Chinese dream. As India has huge development potentials in the areas of infrastructure and industrialization and lack capital, China could play a positive role in developing capacities in these areas with the experience of its own development and its 3.82 trillion dollar foreign exchange reserves. China is encouraging its companies to invest in India; it is for India to create a favorable investment climate to these companies rather than looking at these with suspicion. Joint initiatives such as  BCIM and Chinese proposals to revive northern and southern silk routes are extremely positive steps that will not only uplift people’s lives but will build bridges between the nations also, therefore, India must contribute positively to these initiatives.