Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Deng Xiaoping: Interpreter of the Chinese Dream




1.       Courtesy The Equator Line, vol. 3 April-June 2014 pp. 40-49



In 1976, with the demise of Mao Zedong, the curtains on the ‘Great Proletariat Revolution’ were also brought down. The people who were purged and imprisoned started to walk out of the prisons. Three men, who were walking out of the jail’s gate, enquired about the reasons why they were incarcerated. The first said: “I have been imprisoned for supporting Deng Xiaoping.” The second replied: “It’s ridiculous! I have been framed for attacking Deng Xiaoping!” The duo then turned and asked the third: “What about you?” The third man replied: “I am Deng Xiaoping.” This may be a political satire, but demonstrates the realities of the Chinese politics during Mao’s times, and the man who withstood all these tumultuous times, and not only emerged victorious but also de-Maoised China was none other than the architect of modern China, Deng Xiaoping!  

Most authoritative works on Deng such as Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China (2013) by Harvard sociologist Ezra F. Vogel; Deng Xiaoping and the Making of Modern China (1997) by British ambassador to China, Richard Evan, and Deng: A Political Biography (1998) by Benjamin Yang, a Harvard trained professor of People’s University, Beijing; My Father Deng Xiaoping: ‘Cultural Revolution’ Years 我的父亲邓小平:文革by his daughter Deng Rong (2000) and An Autobiography of Deng Xiaoping 《邓小平自述》published in 2009 have tried to reconstruct the personality and character of Deng, however, most of these except the last one are loaded with post 1977 Deng construct and give very little account of Deng during the Mao years. The autobiography throws some light on his Childhood and formative years in France and Moscow. Deng Xixian (the original name of Deng Xiaoping) was born in Paifang Village in Xiexing township, Guang'an County of Sichuan in 1904. According to Deng Xioping’s brother Deng Ken, ‘their father was a petty landlord with around 6 hectares of land. Deng was eldest of three brothers. Besides they have two sisters. After their mother’s demise in 1924, their father remarried a widow called Xia Bogen. Their step mother was very hard working and treated the kids very well. Deng went to a traditional school at the age of five and passed out middle school from the native county. In 1919, he was selected to be part of a work-study program to go to France and got enrolled in Chongqing Preparatory School. These were the turbulent times in China under the warlords; the May 4th Movement of the Peking University students had attracted young people from across the country. Deng had also participated in the sloganeering and boycott of the Japanese goods, even though their father was old fashioned and represented the old society but never stopped his sons to join the revolution.’   

In the summer of 1920, upon graduating from the Chongqing Preparatory School, Deng, a young boy of 16 along with 80 of his schoolmates boarded a ship for France and landed in Marseilles in October. As the economic condition of his family back home was deteriorating, and money wasn’t forthcoming, he had to do odd jobs while pursuing his studies. Even here French workers were preferred over the Chinese, and discriminated in terms of wages according to Deng’s own diaries. Thanks to Zhou Enlai and others who were also studying in France and were indoctrinated into Marxist thought, Deng also joined the group and started to study Marxism.  In 1922 Deng joined the Communist Party of Chinese Youth in Europe, and two years later Communist Party of China (CPC). Deng’s five year stay in France, was indeed a decent beginning of his revolutionary career, he Co-edited a magazine called ‘Red Light’ and contributed articles. In the aftermath of October Revolution, as Soviet Union was supporting communist movements across the world, many young students were drawn to Soviet Union. Moreover, Sun Yat-sen himself has turned towards Soviet Union for help, which has resulted in the First United Front between the CPC and the Kuomintang (KMT) in the 1920s. Deng was no exception and left France for Moscow in 1926. He initially registered as a student in the Communist University of the Toilers of the East, but soon after transferred to the Sun Yat-sen University, where Feng Funeng, the eldest daughter of Feng Yuxiang,  and Chiang Chingkuo, the eldest son of Chiang Kai-shek were also studying. 

While in Sun Yat-sen University, Deng recalls that his family had great hopes on him. ‘They wanted me to fulfil their dreams of becoming an official and turn around the fortunes of the family. They wanted me to get married and settle down early in life, and also decided to get me married to a daughter of Tang family. They believed in the Confucian adage of ‘not having a progeny is one of the biggest filial sins.’ However, I was having different thoughts about marriage while in France and Russia. ‘I thought that an illiterate girl would certainly be an impediment rather than an advantage in my revolutionary work. I started to believe in ‘love marriage’ and wrote to my parents about it. I was severely scolded by my father as a rebel, un- filial and warned that if I did not mend my ways I would be ostracised by the family. I chose to be ostracised.’

In 1926, after a year’s stay in Sun Yat-sen University, Deng was sent by the Communist International to China to assist the army of Feng Yuxiang, commander of national army in Northwest China. Deng reached China in the spring of 1927 as Chief of the Political Section as well as Secretary of the Communist Party organization at the Sun-Yat-sen Military and political Academy in Xi’an, a time when the CPC-KMT coalition has crumbled, and the KMT had started to purge the communists. Under such circumstances Deng left for Hankou where the situation was even worse. The communists were forced to go underground, and Deng Xixian took the name of Deng Xiaoping to avoid white terror. In 1929 Deng joined Li Mingrui, General Commander of the Seventh and Eighth Armies in the capacity of Political Commissar to launch uprisings against the KMT government. In fact these armies were built under the guidance of Deng, which were successful in establishing Youjiang etc. revolutionary bases. In the base areas, the land was confiscated from the landlords and distributed amongst the peasants. According to Deng he also has a close shave with life during Guangxi White Uprising when he was attacked by the armed bandits and at the point of knife robbed him of 20 silver dollars.’ 

Deng and 7th Army were also victims of the ‘Li Lisan line’- the communists should take to the big cities first – the line proved fatal as the uprisings were crushed mercilessly by the KMT army. Deng opposed the line and joined the Jiangxi revolutionary base in 1931. Deng in fact was subscribing to Mao’s line that called for ‘encircling cities from the countryside’ against dictates of the then CPC leadership influenced by the Comintern representative in China, Otto Braun, and a pro-Soviet faction trained in Moscow that included Wang Ming and others. The Comintern line suffered a heavy blow in October 1934, when the fifth campaign against ‘encirclement and suppression’ failed and the Red Army was forced to retreat to countryside what in history is known as the Long March. The factionalism within the CPC came out in open during Zunyi Conference in 1935 where Mao lambasted the military strategy of the CPC and propounded his own line that was supported by Moscow trained Zhou Enlai and Deng Xiaoping, albeit Deng was just there in the capacity of secretary of the Central Committee. Zunyi conference could be said as the fist stepping stone in Mao Zedong’s long march for power, and also Deng’s albeit he remained in smaller positions during CPC’s retreat in Shaanxi. 

During the War of Resistance Against Japan (1937-45) when Red Army was reorganized into Eighth Route Army, Deng Xiaoping took charge of the Political Commissar of the 129th Division under Liu Bocheng. Following this, Deng with Liu lead various campaigns in Shanxi-Hebei-Henan border area and established anti-Japanese bases. Deng’s first major military victory could be the annihilation of KMT’s 97th Army in March 1940, albeit the offensive was also supported by Shanxi-Qahar-Hebei Military Command. Deng and Liu also engaged the Japanese in various sporadic campaigns which are recorded as ‘Hundred- Regiment Campaigns’ in Chinese history. It was amidst these campaigns that he married Zhuo Lin, one of his comrades.   Deng during all these years seems to be a mere foot soldier of the CPC, however, rose to prominence during the War of Liberation after the withdrawal of the Japanese from China. In one of the famous battles in September 1945, Deng-Liu defeated the 13 divisions of Yan Xishan.  A heavy blow to the KMT was dealt in June 1947 when Liu-Deng armies crossed Yellow River to enter Shandong and routed 56,000 enemy forces thus paving the way for CPC’s advance to the south. The much bigger campaign was Huai-Hai Campaigns that started in September 1948 and lasted over two months. Gradually the KMT was routed from China, when Mao proclaimed the establishment of New China from Tiananmen on October 1, 1949, Deng stood witness the ceremony. 

It took Deng Xiaoping more than two decades to rise to the higher echelons of the Party; in 1956 he gate crashed to the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau, was elected General Secretary of the Central Committee and shared the stage Mao Zedong, Liu Shaoqi, Zhou Enlai, Zhu De and Chen Yun etc. stalwarts. This was the period when China declared that the ‘restoration period’ of the national economy was over, and that the ‘socialist transformation’ of agriculture, cottage industries and industry and commerce was complete; indicating that China was tightening the stranglehold of state ownership. The First Five Year Plan (1951-56)   saw the GDP growing by over 10%, and the CPC, especially Mao started to become impatient for quicker results. ‘Catch up with Great Britain, surpass USA’ caught imagination of the entire CPC leadership and the time scale to achieve this was reduced from 75 to 8 years. Fearing aggressive attack on the CPC leadership, Mao kicked off an “anti-rightist” campaign (1957-58) across China. Deng being the Party boss was at the centre of these campaigns, supervised these and sent people voicing decent to labor camps in the countryside. Deng argued that many in the party possessed ‘bourgeois individualism to a serious degree, and were zealously craving for personal enjoyment.’ Mao’s impatience for better and quicker results resulted into even bigger and disastrous campaign called ‘The Great Leap Forward (1958-60). ‘Backyard blast furnaces’ and ‘people’s communes’ that were set up across China proved catastrophic and a human made famine was in the offing. Deng himself investigated the causes of human made calamity and concluded that mistakes should be rectified, especially ‘everyone sharing the big pot’ a reference to commune canteens amidst collectivization need to be rectified. He pointed out that ‘relations of production should be one that is acceptable to the masses.’  Not only this, he must have invited the fury of the helmsman of China when he pointed out that all the people who have been wronged by the political movements should be rehabilitated. It is an irony that Deng was himself wronged during the so called ‘decade of turmoil’ in China. 

During the turmoil, Deng was twice purged, criticized and repudiated. Together with the then President of China, Liu Shaoqi, he was labelled as ‘No.2 Capitalist Roader in China.’ Even the family members were not spared, his son Deng Pufang, a student in Beijing University was mimed for life; his youngest brother lost his life. Thanks to Lin Biao’s ‘counter-revolutionary coup’ and his death in an air crash in Mongolia (1971) that he was rehabilitated at the age of 68 with Zhou Enlai’s help. Zhou’s ill health also made him to take the portfolios of Vice-Chairman of the Central Military Commission and Chief of the General Staff of the PLA in 1975. However, his open confrontation with Mao’s wife Jiang Qing and her cohorts [Wang Hongwen, Zhang Chunqiao and Yao Wenyuan] known as the ‘Gang of Four’ and an open criticism of mistakes committed during the ‘cultural revolution’ invited the fury of Mao as well as Jiang Qing, and Deng was purged for the second time. The gang accused him of being ‘behind-the scenes instigator of the Tiananmen Incident of April 5, 1976’ in which people had swarmed the square out of their love for Zhou Enlai. A few months later on 9 September 1976, the helmsman of China breathed his last. Departure of Mao from the Chinese political scene witnessed an intense power struggle. Jiang Qing and her cohorts conspired to usurp power and assassinate the Politburo members including Hua Guofeng and Ye Jianying. The latter with Deng’s supporters in the PLA, in a swift move on 6 October arrested the gang. The four were stripped of their party positions and levelled as conspirators and counterrevolutionaries. In July 1977, at the Third Plenum of the Central Committee, Deng was rehabilitated and reinstated to all the posts.

The ‘ten year’s turmoil’ drove home the truth that the ‘ultra left thinking’ has driven China down to a disastrous path, and that Mao’s policy were not sacrosanct. Deng who had been wronged by such policies understood the fallacy of these better than anyone else in CPC. In the third plenary session of the CPC, Deng in his speech called upon ‘participants to ‘emancipate their minds and seek truth from facts.’ ‘Class struggle’ paved way to nation building and socialist modernization albeit ‘Four Cardinal Principles’ (keeping to the socialist road and upholding the dictatorship of the proletariat, Communist Party leadership, Marxism-Leninism and Mao Zedong Thought) were retained. Though the ‘cultural revolution’ was condemned but Mao’s contributions was lauded and mistakes rendered secondary. The ‘communes’ and ‘public canteens’ were shut down and land redistributed to farmers on 15 year’s lease. Subsequently, Deng invented terms such as socialism with Chinese characteristics, and contrary to Mao’s wishful thinking of realizing socialist modernization within 8-15 years, Deng pronounced in 1982 that China was at the ‘primary stage of socialism.’ If Mao advocated ‘politics in command’, Deng advocated ‘economy in command.’ 

In 1991 when I visited China for the first time, I could witness a total but gradual transformation of Mao era planned economy to Deng's socialist market economy. Under Deng’s guidance, China initiated reforms in three stages. During the first stage (between 1978 and early 1980s), rural reforms were initiated that involved the de-collectivization of agriculture, the opening up of the country to foreign investment, and allowing the entrepreneurs to establish private business. During the second stage (between mid 1980s and 1990s) China initiated privatization of the state owned enterprises and liberalization of the prices, and the decentralization of state control. During the third stage (between early 1990s and mid 2000) large scale privatization got intensified, most of the state enterprises, except a few large monopolies, such as banking, oil and telecom sectors were liquidated and their assets sold to private investors. Deng initially experimented with the model in a few Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and then gradually replicated them to the other parts of the country. During first phase of the economic reforms, when China carried out agricultural reforms, it simultaneously established four SEZs in the form of Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Xiamen, and Shantou for foreign investment that were relatively free of the bureaucratic regulations and government intervention.  Once these regions became engines of growth, China created Pudong in Shanghai and Hainan province as two more SEZs in 1990.

This does not mean that Deng forsook the long term policy goals for China; he realistically defined ambitious goals for China’s modernization during the 13th national Congress of the CPC held in 1987. A three-stage modernization formula for the next 62 years was advocated as: Doubling the 1980 GDP to end shortages of food and clothing; quadrupling the 1980 GDP by the end of 20th century and achieving a relatively comfortable life for all the people; and basically completing China’s modernization by mid 21st century, raising the per capita GDP to that of moderately developed countries.  The strategy required that political structure must conform to the requirements of economic reforms, as a result functions of the Party and the government were separated and power delegated to lower levels.

Deng who had just initiated the large scale reforms in the urban areas, witnessed the fury of thousands of angry protesters at Tiananmen Square in 1989. The protesters shouted slogans against the autocratic government, and corruption. Protesters swelled and frightened the government to declare the protesters as ‘counter revolutionary’ wanting ‘total westernization of China.’ Deng being the Chairman of the Central Military Commission called in the army and cleared the square on June 4 1989 by killing many. This is perhaps the only incident that the party is too scared to talk about, forget about reevaluating the event and the role Deng and other played in it. Tiananmen apart, Deng has been lauded for his innovative ‘one country, two systems’ policy as regards Hong Kong and Macao questions, and their subsequent return to China in 1997 and 1999 respectively. He was hopeful that the approach would also bring Taiwan to the folds of mainland China, albeit the question is more complex. Not only this, Deng’s ‘one country and two systems’ found its reverberations in Dharamsala too, as the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan émigré in India and elsewhere viewed it as a possible solution to the Tibetan problem. To everyone’s surprise, in 1979, Deng invited the Dalai Lama’s elder brother, Gyalo Dhundup for talks in Beijing. Deng told Gyalo that apart from the issue of total independence, all other issues could be discussed and resolved. Deng even permitted fact-finding missions to Tibet from Dharamsala, and a more flexible policy for Tibet was initiated. 

Deng's foreign policy was in sync with his policy of reforms and open door. Upon resuming leadership, he restored ties with Japan, consolidated China’s relations with the US and traveled to many Southeast Asian countries, so as China could replicate their economic development. His famous ‘24 character’ guideline – ‘observe calmly, secure our position; cope with our affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile, and never claim leadership’ guided China’s foreign policy under three generations of leadership. However, it appears that of late, the Chinese leadership has brought into play second unstated part of the allegorical saying ‘hide our capacities and bide our time, and make a difference.’ Had Deng being alive, he may still have hold to his version and declared the CPC leadership of being impatient for success, as was the case with Mao during the 1950s. His guidelines were applicable to any thorny issue China was facing. On Diaoyu/Senkaku dispute, he had pointed out in 1978 that ‘it would be wise to shelve the issue if both sides fail to reach an agreement.’ A year later he proposed that China was willing to put aside the issue and seek common development of the resources in the vicinity of the island without referring to the sovereignty. The argument has been extended to the South China Sea as well but has not gone well with the disputed partied.

As regards India’s border dispute with China, Deng was hopeful of settling the issues peacefully. In 1982 while receiving a delegation from the Indian Council of Social Science Research led by G. Parthasarthi, he reiterated his “package deal” for the resolution of boundary issue. He told the delegation that when he met Vajpayee in 1979, he proposed to him the same and that ‘a little compromise from both the sides will solve the problem... if it cannot be solved immediately, we can put it aside....’ A few years later on December 21, 1988, 84 years old Deng had a historic 90 minutes long meeting with Rajiv Gandhi. Clasping Rajiv Gandhi’s hands for pretty long time he told the Indian Prime Minister that ‘let us forget the past and do everything with an eye on the future.’ The real ‘Century of Asia Pacific’ cannot have said arrived until India and China along with other developing countries in this region is not developed.  In 1992, in order to give another push to the reforms, he visited SEZs in south China and called for creating Chinese brands. Sincethen we have seen the emergence of Lenevo, Huawei, Haier, ZTE and many other brands in the international market. In 1996, the man who transformed China breathed his last ending his long March in the Chinese politics.

In conclusion, we see a versatile, authoritarian yet flexible personality in Deng Xiaoping, the person who salvaged China out of ‘movements’ that were full of political intrigues, internecine strife and purges. The ‘revisionists’ like Deng who were purged for ‘not raising the banner of Mao Zedong thought’ emerged paramount in post Mao China and replaced Mao’s thought with his own ‘theory.’ His demise did not witness any internecine political struggle and disruptions as Mao’s demise saw. The policies left by Deng were clearly future oriented and not as dysfunctional as during Mao’s time. One may say that if Mao was successful in turning China powerful (qiang), Deng Xiaoping succeeded in showing China how to acquire wealth (fu); the construct of fuqiang or a Chinese dream continues and it has to be seen how the fifth generation of Chinese leadership under Xi Jinping shapes this dream!

Sunday, June 15, 2014

印度学者:莫迪治下印度如何与中国相处

中国外交部长王毅8日到访印度,两国外长在新德里举行会晤,这是莫迪上任以来中印首场高阶会谈。王毅当天接受印度媒体采访还指出,习近平主席有望在年内正式访印。
  2013年5月,李克强出任中国国务院总理之后首访目的地就是印度,与时任总理辛格进行了坦率交流。如今印度总理变成了莫迪,这是一个外界争议颇多的强势人物,他会给中印关系带来怎样的改变?
  尼赫鲁大学中国和东南亚研究中心中国问题研究教授狄伯杰(B.R.Deepak)近日向新浪撰文,表达了自己的看法。以下为全文,小标题为编者所加。

印度无法忽视中国
  印度总理莫迪因为曾卷入2002年古吉拉特骚乱而被西方世界诟病,部分印度全国性政党称其为“印度教偏执狂”,甚至是“法西斯分子”。这些政党 称莫迪会使印度分裂,对印度和其它地方穆斯林的生存构成威胁。但莫迪证实了这些说法是错误的。他领导的以印度人民党为首的全国民主联盟取得了压倒性的胜 利,仅印度人民党就在下议院赢得了282个绝对多数席位,这是印度1984年以来首次有政党赢得多数席位。领导先前两届政府的印度国大党因为其“政策僵 局”和案值数十亿美元的腐败丑闻(在印度如此穷的国家里更是触目惊心)而惨遭败绩,只获得了44个席位。莫迪在印度政治舞台的兴起反映了拥有十亿人口的印 度,尤其是中产阶层和年轻人,对一位强硬和决定性领导人的渴望。印度国大党的惨败反映了中产阶层和年轻人对腐败缠身、任人维亲、自尼赫鲁时代以来的国大党 王朝统治感到失望。这也代表着印度人想模仿中国经济成功故事的愿望,印度人希望看到印度成为富强国家,从而在国际社会占据正确位置的梦想。
  在看到印度选民的情绪后,前美国驻印度大使南西-鲍威尔大使远道前往古吉拉特邦,赞扬了莫迪的“良好管理”模式和古吉拉特邦“非常出色的投资环 境”,称美国将欢迎莫迪。在莫迪被任命为总理后,美国总统奥巴马向莫迪表示祝贺,并且邀请他在一个双方都合适的时机下访美。两位领导人的会晤已被定在九月 下旬。这表明美国总统将连续两年会见印度总理。奥巴马可能与莫迪讨论防务协议、民用核能合作、美国在印度零售业的投资等议题。但印度总理能忽视印度的近邻 中国吗?
  莫迪已邀请南亚区域合作联盟国家的领导人参加其5月25日的宣誓就职仪式,这一地区外交政策杰出之举也说明了他外交政策的方向。莫迪看起来正试 图修正并加强印度与南亚国家的关系,因此他选择不丹作为就任首访国就不足为奇了。在巩固与该地区国家关系的同时,印度仍需要与像美国、俄罗斯、中国这样的 大国努力达成战略伙伴关系,而中国应成为印度的外交政策优先事务,这一点出于以下原因。

莫迪模式其实是深圳模式
  首先,如果莫迪制订的印度头10项优先事务(他在就任后不久就宣布了这10项优先事务)有任何指标意义的话,那么可以肯定,中国是需要重点关注 的国家。印度能以公道的价格普及手机服务,不是因为诺基亚和爱立信或者任何西方电讯巨头,而是因为面临华为和中兴这样中国电讯巨头激烈的竞争。同理,如果 印度想建立发达的高速铁路和公路网,就应当与中国合作,中国有这方面的专业知识、资本和富有竞争力的价格,附加条件众多且价格昂贵的西方技术对印度则助益 甚少。莫迪对这一点的理解应当要比印度其他政治领袖更深,因为他曾多次去过中国大陆和台湾,他的古吉拉特邦模式其实就是深圳模式。莫迪2011年在北京向 200名中国投资者发表讲演时称,古吉拉特邦将提供良好的监管、透明度和稳定性。他是否能代表印度向这些中国投资者重复这三个词?我认为他能。如果古吉拉 特邦能够吸引中国对印度9亿美元投资额的大部分,那么印度将能在基础设施发展和制造业吸引中国的数十亿美元投资。莫迪已意识到中国的全球影响力,这就是他 为什么告诉李克强总理,印度要学习中国的经验。
  其次,中印两国更密切的经济和政治接触也要求两国建设性和合作性的伙伴关系,这种伙伴关系将超超双边和地区范围,具有巨大的全球影响。21世纪 将是亚洲人的世纪,印度和中国则是亚洲和世界经济增长的双发动机,两国迫切需要一起实现重振亚洲梦想。中国在过去30年一直在积极推进这一梦想,现在是印 度大展身手的时候了。正如莫迪所指出的,印度应当在实现这一梦想上面成为强大和平等的伙伴。孟中印缅区域经济合作、丝绸之路、海上丝绸之路等通过公路、铁 路和市场把国家和地区联系在一起的提议是很受欢迎的步骤。印度的积极参与将使“珍珠串”论和“中国遏制印度”论变得毫无意义,为印度不仅在地区经济发展而 且在地区的安全基础设施发挥更大作用作好准备。鉴于印度和中国的崛起,两国会在印度洋、太平洋或者其它地区有利益重合处。因此,两国将积极探索共同的安全 需求。这一点具有重要意义,两国已发现在气候变化、国际金融机构等其它多边论坛的民主化等领域有共同利益。


中印关系将冲击全球政治和经济结构
  第三,印度与中国有许多悬而未决的议题,其中边界问题是最大的议题,也一直是造成中印两国无法互信的根本原因。并不是所有印度人知道我们曾错失 解决该议题的许多机会,因为我们没有同意中国人在上世纪50年代末和70年代提出的一揽子协议。与中国自1981年进行的39轮边界会谈也没有取得多大成 果。我们谈的越多,这一议题就变得越复杂。这一议题需要一个政治解决方案,而我们的作法恰恰相反,我们采取了分步走的方法,设计了多达8种的机制,包括最 新的边境防务合作协议。这不是说,这些机制没有改善安全环境,安全环境确实得到了改善,中印长达数千公里的边境线未放一枪就证实了这一点。但是,这些措施 未能给出一个可信的、双方都能接受的解决方案。
  中国与巴基斯坦的“坚固友谊”在印度引发了长期的担心和焦虑。印度与日本、越南、韩国、美国关系的改善也在中国的安全圈引发了类似的焦虑,被视 为对中国的“遏制”。随着中国越来越多地在东海与日本、在南海与越南和菲律宾发生海上争端,这些担心再度被提起。人们将持民族主义立场的日本安倍首相与莫 迪进行比较,还有人谈及莫迪与安倍的“密切联系”。在这种情况下,印度需要有一个有精心设计的外交政策,“战略自主”将是它与地区国家和包括中国在内的大 国打交道的外交核心政策。印度不一定要站队,但也不用在吸引日本投资方面缩手缩脚。日本在中国的投资已大幅下降,仅去年的下跌幅度就达近33%。莫迪是一 位务实的总理,前政府在国内和外交政策上谨小慎微的风格可能消失,这是一件好事。
  最后,自古以来,印度和中国文明的对话自古以来就一直没有中断。莫迪曾告诉中国总理,玄奘曾到访过他的家乡。玄奘、鸠摩罗什、真谛、法显、不空 等其他来自中国、印度的学者僧侣都促成了两国的交流。在公元67年至800年的734年间,185位著名翻译家翻译了多达7352册的2412部佛经。正 是这些学者僧侣的努力创造了东亚佛学。在现代,印度的民族主义领导人和中国孙中山和章太炎等民族主义者有密切的联系。印度戈达尔党在香港、上海、汉口、北 京等地设有基地,并参与了上世纪20年代的中国革命。如果数字是可信的,在工业革命之前,印度和中国两国的GDP占了全世界GDP的一半。随着经济和政治 的天平转向亚洲,亚洲会在未来数十年恢复这种地位,印度和中国将占亚洲GDP的大部分。在这种背景下,印中两国关系将具有全球意义,因为它将对全球政治和 经济基础结构产生重大的冲击。毋庸多言,两国精心培育双边关系,继续可以加强文化和经济联系的文明对话是非常重要的。
  狄伯杰(B.R.Deepak):尼赫鲁大学中国和东南亚研究中心中国问题研究教授,曾分别在北大和中国社科院攻读研究生和博士课程。
  著有《印度与中国的1904-2004:和平与纷争的一个世纪》(2005)和《20世纪上半叶的中印关系》(2001)等著作。他撰写的《中国诗词:从公元前11世纪到公元14世纪》更为其赢得2011年的中国特别图书奖。

专稿-印度教授谈大选:雾霾严重却未成为议题


  2014年印度人民院(议会下院)选举投票12日结束,说起印度,你会想到什么?火车外挂的乘客,各种强奸案,阅兵式上的各种杂耍,还是宝莱坞 电影?……我们眼中与他们自己眼中的印度有哪些不同?新浪特邀尼赫鲁大学中国问题研究教授狄伯杰(B.R.Deepak)进行解读。


  中国目前面临的雾霾等空气污染问题,印度也存在。在这次大选中,是否有人关注了空气污染问题,有没有政党提出应对措施拉选票?印度有没有机动车限行、购买机动车摇号的政策?
  狄伯杰:刚发布不久的世界卫生组织调查报告指出2012年全球范围内死亡于空气污染的人数达到700万人, 仅室内空气污染导致430万人死亡。印度本土最近的数字我还没有,不过据20年以前的一个报告,死亡于室内室外空气污染的人数达到250万人。这些数字说 明,空气污染在全球范围内、包括在印度是个非常严重的问题。不仅是空气污染,其他性质的污染,尤其是水质污染、土地包括农地污染等问题也是令人震惊的。
  接近3亿多的印度家庭没有电,因此他们广泛地使用其他燃料来过日子,这一群体是受室内空气污染的最大受害者。虽然印度政府针对气候变化等问题于2008年公布了一项国家行动计划,然而该计划的实施程度很低。
  印度全国人民卷入正在举行的大选浪潮中,不幸的是没有一个政党或领导辩论这些问题。另外,广大印度老百姓对这些问题好像也是陌生的,我认为主要 原因还在于人口整体素质和文化水准。再说,他们最关注的还是通货膨胀、就业、腐败等问题,这些问题相对来说更加直接的影响他们的生活。
  印度到目前没有机动车限行政策。不过这几年因为整体经济放缓,加上不断提高的利率和燃料价格上升,印度汽车产业受到很大影响,销售量大幅度下降。


  印度人口众多,我们经常在新闻图片上看到,印度的铁路旅客坐在车顶。目前印度的铁路客运现状是怎样的?印度各大政党有没有就提高铁路运输安全提出自己的方针或者关注这个问题?
  狄伯杰:在印度铁路是国有的,是世界上最大的铁路网之一,总长度已经超过115000公里。每天的乘客运输量已超过2500万人次。因为客流量与铁路基建有明显的失衡,旅客坐在车顶等现象很普遍,尤其是人口密集的地方如北方邦和比哈尔邦。
  印度的铁路客运还有很多问题,列车里面和车站的卫生设施得不到改善、客车和货车的保养较差,结果经常导致脱轨等事故、效率非常低,还有很多项目因为种种原因都不盈利。
  不过印度铁路是有发展潜力的。我认为如果中国公司希望在印度投资,铁路是一个选择。中国在这方面已经积累了很好的经验,可以在印度搞高铁、建车 站、建车厢厂、提高铁轨的质量等等事项,反正选择很多。这样一来,一方面会促进双方经济的发展,另一方面可以缩小贸易逆差,与此同时也会促进人文交流,建 立互信。


  去年印度强奸事件频繁被媒体曝光,许多打算赴印旅游的中国女性开始担忧旅行安全。目前大选中,国大党和人民党是否有提出相应的措施打击强奸犯罪?你对有赴印打算的外国女性游客有何建议?
  狄伯杰:去年印度强奸事件的确震惊了全印度乃至全世界。印度民众纷纷游行示威,政府被逼在议会上通过威慑性的法案,规定违法者可被判死刑或不得低于20年的有期徒刑,并扩大了强奸的定义,加重了惩罚。
  我认为强制性的法案只是一方面的问题,通过此法案后强奸事件还是在发生。原因在于印度是个非常传统的社会,种姓制度、门第观根深蒂固,封建意识 非常浓厚,男尊女卑的倾向很明显。女孩子与男孩子的教育水准有很大的差距。因此打击强奸犯罪,问题还在于教育子女的态度、为女性提供同等机会、提高整个社 会的道德水准。一旦上述偏颇得到纠正或改善,我认为社会对女性的态度自然而然会改变的,印度在这些方面还要走相当长的路。
  至于政党方面,执政党不断地遭到野党派的攻击和批评。在野党为了拉票,承诺若当选会比执政党在这方面做的更好。
  至于外国女性游客来印度旅游,她们不必要过于担心,印度社会毕竟不是报刊上描写的那么可怕。每年有上千万旅游者来印度,他们喜欢印度的风景、名 胜古迹、多样化的社会,印度人很友好、好客、善良、以助人为乐。我认为女性游客在户外要留点神、尊重当地风俗习惯、夜里别去那些僻静的地方。再说类似的问 题在哪个社会不发生?最近我看到报道说,在包括哈佛在内的许多美国大学里,性骚扰、强奸很普遍,烦恼了奥巴马政府。

农村没有厕所理所当然
  国际媒体曾经报道说印度12亿人口中近半家中没有厕所,是个严重的卫生问题。那么在这次选举中,厕所问题是否也是一个民众关注的话题?
  狄伯杰:2011年的印度人口普查,印度30%的人口是城市人口,70%是乡村人口。在印度农村,没有厕所是理所当然的事情。不过最近政府意识到此问题,加大宣传力度,也提供补经济助。但有的家庭盖了厕所,还不习惯使用;有的家庭拿了政府补助,却没有用来盖厕所。
  城市的状况也很糟糕,比如在德里,接近60%人口来自农村,他们都是农民工,政府允许他们在指定的地方盖贫民窟,那里也存在厕所的问题。这个问 题与人们的生活水平、教育水平、文化素质等有直接有关系。印度作为一个人口大、经济水平低的国家还需要走很长的路。这次选举中,这个问题不是各党派所重视 的问题。


  中国的网民近年形容印度时经常用到一个词:开挂。因为他们看到很多觉得不可思议的人和事,比如杂耍一般的手抛饼、列车乘客 坐到车顶、阅兵式上的杂技、宝莱坞电影中演员异于寻常的身手……你认为,印度给中国网民留下开挂的印象,这件事情反映出印度社会,以及中印文化交流中 的哪些问题?
  狄伯杰:我认为任何社会里都有开挂的事情,问题在于你如何解释它,如何理解它。有的开挂的事情是靠 技巧熟练如抛饼;中国也有类似的开挂,如从长嘴茶壶里倒茶、京剧里的一些表演、90年代以前的无门厕所等。不同的时代有不同的开挂情况,褒贬含义 均有。有的反映庖丁解牛的奇迹,有的反映不可思议的社会风俗、人的性格。我认为类似的开挂任何地方都会有的。
  受访者简介:
  狄伯杰(B.R.Deepak),尼赫鲁大学中国和东南亚研究中心中国问题研究教授,曾分别在北大和中国社科院攻读研究生和博士课程。
  著有《印度与中国的1904-2004:和平与纷争的一个世纪》(2005)和《20世纪上半叶的中印关系》(2001)等著作。他撰写的《中国诗词:从公元前11世纪到公元14世纪》更为其赢得2011年的中国特别图书奖。


India needs well calibrated foreign policy to enhance ties with China

http://epaper.globaltimes.cn/2014-06-12/54604.htm
Indian Prime minister, Narendra Modi a pariah in the Western world for being  complicit in the 2002 Gujarat riots, ‘a Hindi bigot’ and even ‘fascist’ by various national parties in India who according to them would break the country into shreds, and was pronounced a ‘threat to the existence’ of Muslims in India and elsewhere, belied all these claims and steered the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) headed by Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) to a landslide victory with BJP single handedly securing absolute majority by winning 282 seats in the Lower House of the Indian Parliament, first time since 1984 any party has won a majority. The Indian National Congress (INC) that headed the government for two consecutive terms performed disastrously by bagging only 44 seats primarily for its ‘policy paralysis’ and corruption scandals running into billions of dollars in a country as poor as India. Therefore, Modi’s resurgence on the Indian political horizon demonstrates yearning of the billion strong nation, especially the middle class and young population for a strong and decisive leader; the INC drubbing represents this section of population’s frustration with the party infested by corruption, nepotism and perpetual dynastic rule since the days of Nehru. This also represents a desire to emulate China’s economic success story, and an Indian dream of seeing the country become rich and powerful thus seeking its rightful place in the comity of nations.
Seeing the mood of the Indian electorate, Nancy Powel, the then US ambassador to India, travelled all the way to Gujarat; praised Modi’s model of ‘good governance’ and ‘excellent investment climate’ in Gujarat and said that he was welcome in the United States. On being elected to power, the designate Prime Minister, was congratulated by the US President Barack Obama and invited him to visit Washington at a mutually agreeable time, the meeting has been confirmed to late September, implying that the US President would be meeting Indian Prime Minister for the two consecutive years. Obama may have defense deals, civil nuclear cooperation and US investment in Indian retail sector ready for discussion with Modi, but can the Indian Prime Minister ignore its immediate neighbor, China?
Modi inviting SAARC leaders to his swearing in ceremony on May 25, a regional foreign policy master stroke is the testimony to what Modi’s foreign policy is likely to be. It appears that Modi is straightening and strengthening India’s relations with the South Asian countries, no wonder he has opted Bhutan for his first foreign visit. While consolidating its ties in the region, India, meanwhile, need to strive for strategic partnerships with major powers like the US, Russia and China, particularly China should remain India’s top foreign policy priority for the following reasons.
Firstly, if Modi’s top 10 priorities for India, pronounced soon after taking the charge is any pointer, then definitely China is the country we need to focus on. India could universalize mobile phone connectivity in India with such an affordable rates is not because of Nokia and Ericson, or any other western telecom giant, but because of the tough competition these companies received from Chinese telecom giants Huawei and ZTE. Similarly, if India would like to build state of the art high speed railways and expressways, it could be built in tandem with China with latter’s expertise, capital and competitive prices, not with the exorbitantly high western technology attached with strings. Prime Minister Modi perhaps understands it better than any other political leaders in India, for he has been to China and Taiwan many times; his Gujarat model is nothing but a Shenzhen model. In 2011 while addressing a crowd of 200 Chinese investors in Beijing, he told them that Gujarat offered ‘governance, transparency and stability. Can he repeat these three words to them for India as well? I think he will, for if Gujarat has attracted much of the 900 million dollars of Chinese investment in India, India could attract billions more from China in infrastructural development and manufacturing sector. Modi is aware of China’s new global reach, that’s why he told Premier Li Keqiang that India has to learn from China’s experience.
Secondly, greater economic and political engagement between India and China demands that constructive and cooperative partnership transcends bilateral and regional configurations, as the relationship is that of enormous global implications. As the 21st century is tipped to be an Asian Century, and India and China twin engines of Asian and world economic growth, it is imperative for both to realize the dream of a resurgent Asia together. China has been vigorously following this dream for the last 30 years, it is time for India to set its house in order as Modi rightly says, and be a strong and equal partner in the realization of this dream. Initiatives such as BCIM, Silk Route, Sea Silk Route that link the countries and regions by a network of roads, railways and markets are welcome steps. Active participation from India will render the ‘string of pearls’ and ‘China’s containment of India’ etc theories meaningless, and prepare India for a bigger role not only in the regional economic development, but also in the security architecture of the region. It is given that with the rise of both India and China there would be overlapping interests whether in the Indian Ocean, Pacific Ocean or any other continent, therefore, inclusive or common security needs to be actively explored. This is significant as India and China has found convergence of interests in many spheres, be it the climate change, democratization of international financial institutions or other multilateral forums.

Thirdly, India has many outstanding issues with China, the unresolved boundary issue; the biggest of all has been the root cause of much of the trust deficit. Not necessary everyone in India is aware of the fact that we lost a couple of opportunities to resolve the issue, as we did not see logic in the Chinese proposals of a package deal in the late 1950s and 1970s. 39 rounds of talks with China since 1981 have yielded not much; the more we talk the more complexity the issue has gathered. The issue that needed a political solution, we contrarily adopted a piecemeal approach by devising as many as 8 mechanisms including the latest Border Defense Cooperation Agreement. It is not to say that these mechanisms have not improved the security environment, the environment has improved, not firing a single shot in the thousands of kilometers long border is a testimony to this; however, these have fallen short of finding a credible mutually agreeable resolution to the border issue.

As China’s ‘all weather friendship’ with Pakistan has created apprehensions and anxieties in India for a long time, India’s rapprochement with Japan, Vietnam, South Korea, and the US has created similar anxieties in security circles in China, and has been interpreted as ‘containment’ of China. As China get increasingly embroiled in East China Sea with Japan and Vietnam and Philippines in South China Sea, these concerns have been reignited, and the comparisons are being drawn between nationalist Abe and Modi, there are also people talking about ‘close bonding’ between Modi and Abe. Under such circumstances, India will need to have an extremely well calibrated foreign policy with ‘strategic autonomy’ at its core with regional as well as major powers including China. India need not necessarily take sides but should not shy away from attracting Japanese investment in a big way that has declined rapidly in China, last year alone registering almost 33% fall. Modi is going to be hands on prime minister, caution and incrementalism of the erstwhile government in the matters of domestic and foreign policy may disappear for better.

Finally, there has been an uninterrupted civilizational dialogue between India and China since time immemorial. Xuan Zang, who Modi told the Chinese Premier had visited his native place, was part of this dialogue along with many other scholar monks from China and India including Kumārajīva, Paramārtha, Amoghavajra Faxian and Yi Jing. In a span of 734 years between 67 AD and 800 AD, 2412 sutras that ran into 7352 fascicles were translated from Sanskrit by 185 prominent translators. It was through the efforts of these scholar monks that the repository of East Asian Buddhist literature could be created. In modern times, there was a very close proximity between the Indian nationalist leaders with the Chinese nationalists namely Sun Yatsen and Zhang Taiyan; the Ghadr Party that had basis in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Hankou, Beijing etc. places and had participated in Chinese revolution in 1920s was supported both by the Communists and the Nationalists.  If the figures are to be believed, prior to the industrial revolution, India and China jointly accounted for 50% of the world's GDP. As the economic and political balance shifts to Asia, Asia is poised to restore that position within the next few decades, and India and China accounting for most of the GDP. It is in this context that the relationship is going to be that of a global significance, as it would heavily impinge on the global political and economic architecture. Needless to say, it becomes extremely important for both the countries to nurture this relationship well, and continue the civilizational dialogue that once strengthened cultural as well as economic ties between both the countries.