UNSCR 1267: Will China let the 'Hold' go or Block it?

China’s ‘technical hold’ on India's move to put a ban on the Jaish-e-Mohammed leader Maulana Masood Azhar  under the 1267 Sanctions Committee of the UN expires on 31 December. China could either let the ‘hold’ lapse or ‘block’ the move. In former’s case move will put a ban on Azhar, and in latter’s case save him from the sanctions. If China let the hold lapse, it will demonstrate a shift in China’s stand on terrorism vis-a-vis India and Pakistan, and its intention to push India-China relations to new heights. It will also earn huge goodwill in India and the stereotype image of China in India may change for better. Conversely, if it blocks the move, rather than earning goodwill, its image as a troublemaker rather as the supporter of cross border terror in the subcontinent will be too obvious to the Indian people, which in effect will further jeopardize bilateral relations. Will China change its course on cross border terror?   

I believe, given China’s huge stakes in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and its eagerness to collaborate with India on various projects that could well form part of the ambitious Belt and Road initiative, China may change its course. On 28 December 2016 former Chinese consulate general in Kolkata, Mao Siwei indicated in an article on his blog that ‘China must hold high moral ground’ as regards counter terrorism spat between India and Pakistan. He argued that “it is time for China to list Masood Azhar in 1267 terror list respecting the sentiments of 1.3 billion Indian people, and tell the world that it would like to play a responsible role in the global governance, at the same time will indicate to Pakistan that no doubt we are iron brothers but don't fish in the troubled waters!’ These are perhaps succinct, straightforward yet strongest words coming from a former Chinese diplomat and a columnist in China. He argues that Indian Prime Minister Modi’s goodwill visit to Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif was responded to an attack on the Pathankot Air Base by the ‘non-state armed group’ thus scuttling the reconciliations before it could kick off. He says, ‘this incident proved once again that Pakistan's non-state armed groups do have the capacity to influence the state-to-state relations between India and Pakistan.’

The former diplomat posits that ‘the issue of sanctions against Azhar has became a major issue affecting Sino-Indian relations.’ According to him, the issue is an important factor for the decline of Sino-Indian relations in 2016. Giving minute details of terror activities of the Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed right from the attack on the Indian Parliament in 2001, Mumbai terror attack which he terms as India’s 9.11, to this year’s Pathankot attack, and the formation of the 1267 Sanction Committee of the UN and the role China played in it since its inception, he posits that ‘it is the time that China must take advantage of the Indian move, give it a serious thought, adjust China’s position, and get out of the diplomatic passivity that 1267 list has put China in. China adjusting its position will send very positive signals to all the parties concerned. ‘As regards Pakistan, China cherishes its strategic partnership with Pakistan, but also urges it not to fish in the troubled waters; as far as India is concerned, China’s desire to develop friendly relations with India is sincere, and that it attaches importance to the sentiments of 1.3 billion Indian people; and to the world, China will demonstrate that it is a responsible major power, willing to play more active role in global governance.’

If China readjusts it position, we will find an upward movement in India-China relations, and perhaps the initiation of dialogue process with Pakistan too. Also, the counter terrorism engagement with China could be deepened. Above all, the goodwill China will earn in India will necessarily translate into greater level of economic engagement between the two. 

India-US Relations: Hard to tell which way the wind will blow?

The outgoing US Defense Secretary, Aston Carter included India in his last overseas trip besides the close allies of the US such as Japan, Bahrain, Israel, Italy and the UK. He will reach India on 8 December and will hold wide ranging discussions with Indian Defense Minister, Manohar Parrikar and other leaders. Strategic and technological cooperation between India and the US has been at its best during Carter’s tenure, which saw both inking the landmark Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) and India joining the Missile Technology Control Regime.

Ahead of his India visit, speaking at the Regan National Defense Forum in Simi Valley, California on 4 December, Carter said, “The US-India defense relationship is the closest it’s ever been. Through our strategic handshake – with America reaching west in the re-balance, and India reaching east in what Prime Minister Modi calls his Act East policy – our two nations are exercising together by air, land and sea like never before.” As regards technological cooperation, he said, “We also have a technological handshake — as the US — India Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI), grasps hands with Prime Minister Modi's Make in India campaign — that's helping our countries move toward more diverse co-development and co-production of weapons systems.” Though the agenda of Carter’s this visit appears to be limited, no progress is expected on the two pending foundational agreements – the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) and Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) that would have enabled both countries to exchange communication between the militaries, and the sharing of geospatial data. However, it is speculated that the agenda may include M777 and Predator Guardian for the Indian Navy.

Yet, with president-elect Donald Trump in White House from mid January, there are anxieties in the power corridors in both the countries albeit it has been expected that strategic, economic and technological partnership between India and the US will be further consolidated and the labor Carter has put in will not be lost. Since Major Defense Partner (MDP) status bestowed by the US on India, a nomenclature exclusively created for India, and the (LEMOA) remains in limbo and non-operational, and uncertainties outweighs the optimism as of now. Especially when Trump has picked up Lt. Gen James “Mad Dog” Mattis for the office of Defense Secretary, who, is thought to be inclined favorably towards Pakistan, as has been demonstrated when he headed the US Central Command from 2010 to 2013.

However, Pakistani establishment having written off the US as a declining power and having embraced China even tightly may change such an equation, nonetheless, Pakistan will work hard to encash Mattis’ goodwill. If General Mattis is favorably inclined towards Pakistan, India has found solace in the new National Security Adviser, General Michael Flynn, a former Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency who have vociferously spoken about Pakistan’s betrayal of the US and sheltering of terrorists by the former. Moreover, as Trump’s domestic and foreign policy is being speculated to be that of retrenchment and de-escalation, the US would no longer be a cash cow, not even to its allies. Furthermore, in strategic circles in India, India-US relationship has long been de-hyphenated from Pakistan, albeit it has been increasingly looked through the prism of China.

More than these speculations, during Carter’s visit, both sides are likely to discuss the impact of the political transition in Washington on the strategic and technological cooperation between the two. It is widely believed that both sides would continue to work along the institutional mechanisms such as the DTTI and MDP created during the Obama administration. It is also believed that Prime Minister Modi has established a good rapport with president-elect Trump. Modi’s take on the transition was that there is no reason to apprehend any dramatic change in bilateral relations. He believes that Trump would be favorably inclined towards India. Yet, it is too early to predict the unpredictable Trump, it is hard to tell which way the wind will blow, therefore, one really needs to wait and watch!