Prime
Minister Narendera Modi concluded his 5 day long Japan visit and returned home
on September 3, 2014. The visit has been regarded as a success as both the
countries upgraded bilateral relations to ‘special strategic and global
partnership’ as Modi and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pledged to
strengthen economic and security ties.
Modi’s
close ties with Abe were distinctly reflected in the rhetoric such as ‘Japan is
the closest and most reliable partner of India’, and that ‘No country has done
more for modernizing India's infrastructure than Japan.’ Modi’s words including
those pronounced at a gathering of business leaders in Tokyo when he said that
‘the world is divided in two camps. One camp believes in expansionist policies
while the other believes in development,” and that ‘We have to decide whether
the world should get caught in the grip of expansionist policies or we should
lead it on the path of development and create opportunities that take it to
greater heights’ were certainly offered to please his host who in an unusual
gesture traveled all the way to receive Modi in Kyoto at the weekend to host an
informal dinner for Modi.
The
56 point long Tokyo Declaration issued on September 1, 2014 after the summit meeting
is a blue print for future collaboration between India and Japan and
incorporates areas such as infrastructure, investment, energy security,
agriculture and food, regional connectivity, defense and maritime security,
science and technology, and people to people exchanges. The biggest take away
from the summit meeting could be said Japanese pledge to invest 35 billion US
dollars in India within a span of five years and 480 million dollars in
infrastructure loans to India.
Though
Japan has been providing yen loans to India since
1958, and has remained largest aid donor of India, however, the trade and
economic relations between India and Japan have remained abysmal in the light
of sheer market size of India and Japan’s capital accumulation as well as
technological advancement. Just consider China’s trade volume with Japan
irrespective of the fact that China established relations with Japan 27 years
after India’s establishment of relation with Japan. Irrespective of
Senkaku/Diaoyu spat, Japan’s trade volume with China is over 300 billion US
dollars, almost 4 times bigger than its trade with India. Though Japanese investment in the wake of
Senkaku/Diaoyu standoff has dwindled to the tune of 9 billion US dollars per
annum, but the sheer size of trade and investment tells us that China-Japan
trade relations remains extremely important to both the countries and no one is
willing to pull the rug, for it would be disastrous for both the countries, and
may be the region as well.
On the defense and security front nothing substantive happened,
the Indian side was expecting a breakthrough in the civil nuclear cooperation
as well as the purchase of US-2 amphibious planes, albeit both sides have
directed the concerned departments to move ahead with the negotiations on these
areas. As India has raised the private equity in defense industry to 49%, there
may be joint research and development of defense related technology in future;
Japan lifting the ban it imposed on 6 defense enterprises in the wake of 1998
nuclear explosion is an indication that the cooperation in defense sector is
likely to be strengthened.
Notwithstanding the signals of increased cooperation in the field
of security, India must be watchful of fishing is the troubled waters when the
spat between Japan and China is concerned. India must pursue its stated foreign
policy of strategic autonomy; therefore, to gang up with a particular
country/countries against another, or slip in to the arms of US are not the
options for India. In Tokyo Modi referring to ‘expansionist policies’ of some
countries was totally uncalled for, as it is utterly explicit as to whom one is
referring to even if one do not name the country.
India needs both Japan and China. We need investment and
technology from both the countries. China undoubtedly remains India’s largest trading
partner, accounting for almost 9 percent of our total trade. However, it does
not figure amongst top 10 as far as foreign direct investment is concerned;
Japan figures at number 4. I believe as the Chinese president visits India
during mid September, this asymmetry is done away with and China’s investment
in India increases manifolds. There are already talks to establish 4 industrial
investment parks with billions of dollars investment; investment in
infrastructure including high speed railways. I believe our prime minister
repeats the words he spoke in Japan that ‘The success of the 21st century will
largely depend on the path our two nations follow.’
China’s
response to Modi’s China visit could be gauged from the cautious approach it
adopted in reacting to Japan-India bonhomie especially Modi’s remarks on
‘expansionist policies’ of some countries. Chinese edition of Global Times
editorial ‘Japan-India containment of China is a mythomania’; Xinhua commentary
‘Abe-Modi did you have a hearty talk?’ and another one by English edition of
the Global Times ‘Modi-Abe intimacy brings scant comfort’ etc. are
pointer to this approach. The language was conciliatory showing understanding
for ‘Modi’s emotional bonding with Japan and a little nationalistic when it
comes to China.’ At maximum the intimacy will bring ‘psychological comfort to
the two countries’ wrote the English version of the editorial. China’s Foreign
Ministry spokesman, Qin Gang even brushed aside the bonhomie and remarked that
‘China and India are strategic partners that seek common development.’
If Modi talked about Japanese technological prowess and foreign
direct investment, we cannot ignore the Chinese technology, its experiences in
modernization over the last 35 years, managing big populations, and having the
largest foreign exchange reserves in the world. Today, irrespective of
‘security issues’, it is the Chinese telecom companies that have revolutionized
the telecom sector in India. In Gujraat it is the Chinese technology that runs
the power industry. There is a huge scope in building Indian infrastructure
including high speed railways with relatively cheaper Chinese technology.
Chinese investment in industrial investment parks across India is another
example of building trust and opening opportunities for Indian work force. Bilateral
initiatives such as BCIM, and Chinese proposal seeking India’s
involvement in Silk Route, Sea Silk Route that link the countries and regions
by a network of roads, railways and markets are welcome steps. Active
participation from India will render the ‘string of pearls’ and ‘China’s
containment of India’ etc. theories meaningless, and prepare India for a bigger
role not only in the regional economic development, but also in the security
architecture of the region.
Therefore, India and China
relationship has transcended the bilateral scope and has acquired global
significance as we engage in multilateral forums such as BRICS, G20 , BASIC,
ASEAN, ARF, SCO , SAARC, and even Afghanistan and counter terrorism. Yes, India and China has problems, however,
the best way to deal with them is to negotiate and not let these jeopardize the
overall relationship; to join the ‘united front’ of this or that country will never be in India’s
national interests.
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