As far as the leadership of a
country is concerned, it is vital to have a vision for the future; a vision
that holds a very high moral ground and inspires every citizen to participate
in the cause of nation building. Both India and China had held that high moral
ground during the days of ‘civilization states’ in ancient times, but the same
got shattered with the eastward advance of the western imperialism when both
were reduced to the status of colonial
and semi-colonial societies, and inflicted on them irreparable damages and injuries
through wars of aggression. In the course of struggle to freedom, the national
leaders in both the countries right from Sun Yat-sen to Xi Jinping, and from
Mahatma Gandhi to Manmohan Singh have been aspiring to rejuvenate respective
countries with their versions of dreams. As Xi Jinping’s China Dream narrative
gains currency in China and beyond, other emerging economies including India
have been trying to construct their own narrative of Indian dream. So much so during his China visit in
October last year when Indian Prime Minister Mr. Singh met the Chinese
President Xi Jinping, he told President Xi that the Chinese dream was closely
linked with the Indian dream and they fit in with each other. China’s
ambassador to India ambassador. Wei Wei resonated similar feeling while writing
about Chinese dream in Indian media. Does India really have a
dream?
Even if the discourse and narrative of Indian dream has
not resonated the same pitch as the Chinese dream has recently, however, the
Indian dream comes alive if we glance through pre and post independence history
of India. In 1947, as the nation of 400 million people awaited its emergence from the clutches of
colonial servitude, everyone cutting across the class, caste and religion
aspired for freedom and a hopeful tomorrow. Many of India’s national leaders
amidst the freedom struggle foresaw a future for India: an India that would
epitomize freedom, peace, prosperity and development. Mahatma Gandhi, the father
of Indian nation, and a crusader of non-violence, dreamt of an India ‘free and
strong so that she may offer herself a willing and pure sacrifice for the
betterment of the world. India’s freedom must revolutionize the world’s outlook
upon peace and war.’ This he wrote in Young India in 1925, a weekly
magazine published by him. More of Gandhi’s writings and his vision of India
were published in a book entitled ‘India of My Dreams’ on 15th
August 1947, the day India attained independence. Obviously, Gandhi did not wish India to be
militarily but spiritually strong as he said, ‘India is less in need of steel weapons, it has fought with divine weapons,
it can still do so. Other nations have been votaries of brute force. The
terrible war going on in Europe furnishes a forcible illustration of the truth.
India can win all by soul force. History supplies numerous instances to prove
that brute force is as nothing before soul force.’
A few year later in 1931 he wrote about a classless, untouchability free India, in which everyone have an
effective voice, an India in which all communities shall live in perfect
harmony, an India where women will enjoy the same rights as men.’ He aspired
for India’s rise but emphatically said that ‘I do not want India to rise on the
ruin of other nations.’
Jawaharlal Nehru, who became the
first Prime Minister of Independent India, reciprocated Gandhi’s views on
poverty and inequality. In his ‘India’s tryst with destiny’ speech on 15th
August 1947, he said ‘the service of India means the service of the millions
who suffer. It means the ending of poverty and ignorance and disease and
inequality of opportunity.’ Reminding people of Mahatma Gandhi, Nehru said that
the ambition of the greatest man of our generation has been to wipe every tear
from every eye….And so we have to labor and to work, and work hard, to give
reality to our dreams. Those dreams are for India, but they are also for the
world, for all the nations and peoples are too closely knit together today....’
In the same vein other Indian
leaders such as Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi wished to make India self
reliant and poverty free. The ‘president of the people’ and ‘missile man of
India’, A P J Abdul Kalam wrote a book entitled India:2020 and
vociferously advocated an action plan to
develop India into a strong nation by the year 2020. He perceived India as a
knowledge superpower and developed nation, and a future superpower. In the run up for 2014 parliamentary elections
the leaders of various political parties have been talking on the same lines,
albeit the under different circumstances.
The main premise behind such a dream has been that India
has been a civilizational state with a brilliant past notwithstanding the
foreign aggression right from Alexander
to the British. India has a strong foundation built with traditions and
culture, science and technology. India’s contribution to the world civilization in the
fields of mathematics by discovering zero, its system of ‘Ayurveda’ (Indian
medicine), Yoga, Dhyana, international universities like Nalanda that were
founded hundreds of years before any university in the western world, great
strides in astronomy, philosophy, literature, music and dance are often cited
as the examples of its past glory. It is perhaps the supremacy of ancient India
that made Mahatma Gandhi to declare that India can ‘win all by soul force’
rather than the brute force. Secondly, in terms of human resources India is
strategically poised to reap the demographic dividend. According to 2011 Census, India’s working age
population (15-64 years) is now 63.4% of the total. India’s labor force is expected to be around
526 million in 2011 and 653 million in 2031. According to the Indian Labor
Report, 300 million youth would enter the labor force by 2025, and 25% of the
world's workers in the next three years would be Indians. If harnessed reasonably
it is believed that Indian economy will grow at a faster rate. Thirdly, India holds
a great economic promise, for its market is huge with a huge middle class. Some
of the sectors that are worth trillions of dollars are information technology,
infrastructure, telecom, retail, and health care. Investment and turnaround of
these sectors could catapult India to third largest economy in a short span of
time. Fourthly, it is believed that India
has soft power in abundance. Fifthly, India
is committed to democratic institutions, robust financial institutions and the
rule of law. Finally, with strides in space research and missile technology,
its military capabilities are on the rise. However, there are also various
constraints that may jeopardize the Indian dream.
Notwithstanding these promising
positives of an Indian dream, yet there are various inherent constraints that
may jeopardize the dream of India becoming a prosperous and developed society.
First and foremost, unlike India’s ‘missile man’ president Kalam who had
envisioned India as a developed nation by 2020, there is a lack of strategic
culture or thinking in India. Many in India
agree with George Tanham’s thinking that ‘India is an extraordinarily
complex and diverse society, and Indian elites show little evidence of having
thought coherently and systematically about national strategy’ albeit India’s
top diplomat Shiv Shankar Menon may not agree with such a narrative. Disagreement
apart, it is true that various policies between different government
departments are often incoherent and the vision very narrow and short. The sheer absence of a strategic culture and
incoherency has undermined India’s civilian and military effectiveness in
various ways. The costs in terms of procurement from abroad as well as
equipment developed indigenously have increased many folds. For example, the
cost of developing Arjun, a main battle tank in India has exceeded the original
cost by 20 times, and the procurement of Gorchakov, the aircraft career
exceeded by three times of the original cost; same is applicable to various
infrastructural projects going on the country.
As far as demographic dividend is
concerned, it would be determined by the universality of education amongst the
young people. The overall quality of secondary and higher education in India is
well below global standards. The kind of capacities that are required for such
a ‘dividend’ are missing; for example the much talked Indian Institutes of
Technology (IITs) produces a tiny number of graduates and many of them finds
their ways to the US and other developed countries upon graduation. China has
offered special facilities and packages to attract such oversee Chinese experts
and many have found their ways to Chinese universities and research institutes.
Other infrastructural problems in educational sector that has cropped up as a
result of inadequate spending and poor planning will stifle the chances of any
‘dividend’ we are looking at.
Thirdly, the highly stratified
society in terms of religion, languages, caste and class is taking a heavy toll
of the overall development in the country. Rather than devising strategies to
do away with some of these social ills, the government has been unfolding
populist policies in terms of freebies and reservation to certain sections of
the society that has bred exclusion and ineffectiveness in various domains. The leadership, especially in an era of
coalition politics in India has little time for long-term goals of national
development; the government is busy appeasing the coalition partners, and
saving the collapse at any cost that has bred serious corruption on the on hand
and political instability on the other. The
‘license raj’ coupled by unfavorable investment climate has given rise to
economic uncertainty, and the once bright prospects of a vibrant economic
development seems gloomy. This is discernible from the second term of the UPA
government when government was riddled by various scams such as ‘commonwealth
Games scam’, ‘Adarsh Housing Society scam’, 2G Spectrum scam’, Coal Block
Distribution Scam’ etc. to name a few.
However, irrespective of structural
weaknesses, widespread corruption, poor leadership, extreme social divisions,
religious extremism and internal security threats, the Indian dream that was
aspired by the Indian leadership pre and post independent India has the
potential to be realized, provided
certain concerns are addressed. First, continue to achieve the faster economic
growth rate, so that the momentum of the rise could be sustained and necessary
capital created for allaying various developmental challenges. Secondly, India need to diversify its access
to international energy sources which is extremely important for avoiding
domestic socio-political troubles. As it has been seen, arresting inflation has
got precedence over various other issues of economic and strategic concerns as
the price rise has brought down many governments in India. This would also be
crucial for the political stability.
Thirdly, the Indian leadership need to think in long-term planning, I
cannot find any parallel to China’s long term developmental vision right from
‘self-strengthening Movement’ of the 1860s
(33 years long) to the ‘three step strategy’ of the late 1980s (67 year
long plan) in India. Fourthly, spend more on education and health if India
wants to reap ‘demographic dividend.’ Fifthly, India need to expand the depth
and breadth of its domestic defense industry, for great-defense capabilities
are not built and sustained on foreign procurements. It needs to throw open its
defense sector for private investment and foreign collaboration. DRDO may have
some feathers in its cap but better could be done. Sixthly, it must create a
peaceful neighborhood and avoid confrontation. The best bet would ‘soft
balancing’ between various players including the US in the region. Finally, I strongly believe that Indian dream complements the
Chinese dream. As India has huge development potentials in the areas of
infrastructure and industrialization and lack capital, China could play a
positive role in developing capacities in these areas with the experience of
its own development and its 3.82 trillion dollar foreign exchange reserves. China
is encouraging its companies to invest in India; it is for India to create a
favorable investment climate to these companies rather than looking at these
with suspicion. Joint initiatives such as
BCIM and Chinese proposals to revive northern and southern silk routes
are extremely positive steps that will not only uplift people’s lives but will
build bridges between the nations also, therefore, India must contribute
positively to these initiatives.
