US President, Barack Obama became the
first American President to be a chief guest at the annual Republic Day parade
of India, the only US president having visited India twice during his
presidency and perhaps the only lame duck president to meet Indian Prime
Minister 4th time in a gap of one year.
Historically, India-US diplomatic
relations have been devoid of mutual trust, the reasons being India’s 1971
treaty of friendship with the erstwhile Soviet Union, and US’s warmth to
India’s arch rival China and Pakistan. In the aftermath of India’s nuclear
tests and abortive economic sanctions against India, Bill Clinton’s 1999 visit
attempted to push the reset button for better relations, however, it was under
George Bush’s Presidency that India-US relations were catapulted to a new high
with the conclusion of India-US civil nuclear deal that could not take off owing
to domestic policies from both the governments, but could be a major take away
from Obama’s current visit.
India and the US has done enough as far
as symbolism is concerned, however, what is important at this juncture is the
substance in this relationship. If the former Indian Prime Minister, Vajpayee
demonstrated his commitment to turn the ‘estranged democracies’ into ‘natural
allies’ then Prime Minister Modi has openly revealed India’s enthusiasm for
building strong strategic ties with the US and its allies such as Japan and
Australia much to the suspicion of China that India is playing a pawn in the
containment of China.
If the US is clear what it wants from
India, I believe India has to be clear what it wants from the US too. Modi
seems to move away from the diplomatic niceties and move on to the deliverables
in terms of operationalization of the civil nuclear deal, revival of
the Defence
Trade and Technology Initiative (DTTI) that may enable joint development and
production of advanced weapon systems, extension of the 10-year India-US
defence framework, technology transfer for renewable energy, food processing
industry so on and so forth.
In a decade,
India has already procured $10 billion worth defence equipments from the US,
and there are talks to jointly manufacture Javelin anti-tank guided missiles
(ATGMs) and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in India. Bilateral trade has
catapulted to near $100 billion trouncing China as India’s largest trade
partner. Both plan to take this figure to $500 billion mark in a decade. The symbolism and nature of bilateral
engagement indicates that both want the closest possible strategic and trade
partnership. However, in order to realise this excellent and cautious
excitement over defence and trade, India needs to initiate a series of
structural and infrastructural related reforms so as to create conducive
environment for the investment inflows and technology transfers. Even if India
is successful in doing so, the US companies may not necessarily find the 49%
equity cap offered by the government attractive enough.
The US has time and again articulated
that it would like to see India as a major global power. One should not be
mistaken that it is the rise of China that has enable the ‘estranged
democracies’ to forge strategic partnership! However, there are problems too,
for the US does not see any role for India in Transatlantic Trade and
Investment Partnership (TTIP) and its companion agreement Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) which are yet
to be signed. Neither has India warmed up to the Chinese proposal of ‘Silk Road
Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Route’. There are other
differential issues relating to climate change and WTO where India does not
have the kind of understanding or the playing field China has with the US.
In such a scenario, India is faced with
uncertainties as well as opportunities to capitalise on the invaluable
geopolitical strategic space it has in the Indo-Pacific. If the US is attempting
to offset China’s geopolitical pull by way of India confronting China or in
tandem with the US and its allies in the seas and land it would be disastrous
for all the stakeholders. From an Indian point of view, if the US is looking
for a strong economic partnership with India, so is the case of India’s
economic engagement with China and the US alike. It would be naïve to say that
the US will dump its interests in China for India. Imagine the $521 billion
trade volume between China and the US and compare it with our trade with China
and the US combine!
It is in this background that if at all
India would like to be a so called ‘swing power’ between China and the US, we
need to be a swing power as far as cooperation and healthy competition is
concerned not the confrontation and conflict, which is neither in India’s
interest nor in the interest of China and the US.
