Thursday, March 20, 2014

Henderson Brooks Report on 1962 War: ‘Secrecy’ an Ostrich Act



There is nothing new about the Henderson Brooks- P S Bhagat Report, the only fact that is established by Neville Maxwell by uploading it on his website is that he indeed possessed a copy as was widely believed, for he has vastly quoted from the Report in his book India’s China War published eight years after the 1962 blunder. The Chinese government is also believed to own a copy as is clear from the books written in Chinese on 1962. Therefore, to keep the Report a ‘top secret’ as is the case with other archival documents pertaining to British India and Tibet is indeed an ostrich act.  Declassifying the Report will demonstrate the willingness of the government to learn from our past mistakes, that it is ready to overhaul country’s defence strategies and preparedness as well as incoherent policy decisions between various ministries and departments.  Therefore, the government must declassify it in supreme national interest.

Maxwell has held the prematurely conceived ‘forward policy’ of India as a culprit for the war, where as he has maintained a silence on the changing border lines in the Western Sector, especially the 1960 claim line by China. He had no answer for the same when he visited my department in late 80s. Therefore, in order to understand the matrix of ‘forward policy’ it is imperative to understand the overall border situation prevalent at that point in time.  The situation on the borders had deteriorated drastically in the wake of Sino-Indian agreement of 1954 and had culminated in the Konka and Longju bloody incidents on Western and Eastern Sectors. The Tibetan revolt and the flight of the Dalai Lama in 1959 added fuel to the fire. The opportunity of reaching out a settlement when Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai visited India in 1960 was lost as India was not willing to negotiate the undemarcated and undefined border.

In the face of such a hostile coexistence, China built up its defenses and enhanced communication links in the border areas. Apart from building Aksai Chin Road, Shi (1992: 163) tells us that “By May 1960 a road connecting western Tibet with the Indian border was completed. A network of roads connecting Lhasa to Thagla Ridge was also completed and huge quantities of military supplies found their way to the border.” In the Western Sector, beside Aksai Chin Highway, Lanak La was connected to Kongka by roads. After the failure of official level talks, the Chinese opened new posts at Nyagzu and Dambuguru. In 1961 these posts were connected to Khurnak Fort and Kongka La by constructing a road. Another road connected Rudok with Spanggur was also completed. The Chinese also started construction work on three new roads in Ladakh. One from Samzungling along the Galwan river; another from Khurnak Fort to the vicinity of the Sirijap; and the third from Spanggur to Shinzang along the southern bank of Spanggur lake (Manekar 1968: 38, 41).  Nyagzu and Dambuguru were converted into military bases in 1961.

By mid 1960, China established three regimental headquarters, one at Qizil Jilga, another near Lanak La and a third at Rudok. According to Mullik (1971: 313), the then Director of Indian Intelligence, by October 1961 China had established 61 new posts – seven in Ladakh, fourteen opposite the Central Sector, twelve facing Sikkim in the Chumbi Valley, three opposite Bhutan and twenty-five across NEFA border. According to Mullik, seven new roads constructed in the Indian territory were close to the Central Sector border and eight to the border in the Eastern Sector. China was seriously preparing for war; on the other hand India was clueless as regards how to calibrate  its border policy, the response came in the form of ill fated ‘forward policy’.

In order to counter the Chinese incursions, India according to Prasad (1992: 65, emphasis added) prepared an appreciation of the threat posed by the Chinese in September 1959. It deduced that with present state of development it is unlikely that the Chinese can launch a major incursion on any part of the country or create a situation where there is a likelihood of major operations taking place. However, it was also stated that “the intentions of [the Chinese] coming over Himalayas onto our side is apparent.” Based on the assessment of the Chinese strength across the border, the appreciation recommended positioning of troops in various sectors to counter the Chinese threat. The recommendations could not be implemented immediately due to logistic problems; moreover, the Indian leadership also shared the view that China would not resort to a large-scale aggression. It was after the Kongka Pass incident that the Eastern Sector was put under army command and construction of roads given high priority from early 1960 with the establishment of General Reserve Engineering Force (GREF).

The so-called ‘forward policy’ was crystallised in a high level meeting under Prime Minister Nehru on 2 November 1961. The meeting was attended by Defence Minister, Krishna Menon, Foreign Secretary, M. J Desai, Chief of the Army Staff, General P. N. Thapar, Lt. General Kaul, Director Intelligence Bureau, B. N. Mullik, Brigadier Palit and other officials. The government directive  (Maxwell 1970: 221-22; Mullik 1971: 314 emphasis added) that was issued after this meeting envisaged:

a)      So far as Ladakh is concerned, we are to patrol as far forward as possible from our present positions towards the international border.
b)      As regards UP [Uttar Pradesh, now Uttranchal in Middle Sector] and other northern areas. We should as far as practicable, go forward and be in effective occupation of the whole frontier. Where there are any gaps, they must be covered either by patrolling or by posts.
c)      In view of the numerous operational and administrative difficulties, efforts should be made to position major concentration of forces along our borders in places conveniently situated behind the forward posts from where they should be maintained logistically and from where they can restore a border situation at short notice.  

It could be gleaned from this government directive that in wake of the Chinese advances it was construed that the ‘forward policy’ would prevent the Chinese to occupy more ‘Indian territories.’ This in other words implied that India would violate the status quo on boundary and move into the area it considered belonged to India. However, the notion was formulated on the ill-conceived apprehensions that China would not retaliate. Moreover, most of the forward posts were dependent on air dropped supplies due to poor communication and logistic problems. As recorded by Prasad at al. (1992: 69), the troops were dispersed into small, isolated posts each barely 10-20 [men] strong. The posts acted as “flag posts” merely to show physical presence of the Indian troops. Not getting involved with the Chinese was also ill conceived notion, for according to China’s interpretations of international border India had occupied vast areas of ‘Chinese territory’ and was determined to eject India from these areas as was witnessed in Longju and Kongka Pass incidents.   Prasad (1992: 70-71) quoting official records notes that by the end of September 1962, 36 Indian posts [43 according to China as on 20 October, Shi 1992:155; Yang 1992: 308] were established in Ladakh as against 47 set up by the Chinese in the area. In the Eastern Sector, 34 new posts were established by 20 July 1962. In this process some of the posts established by India actually crossed the McMahon Line; India ignored the line on the ground and followed the watershed principle. According to Chinese interpretation (Yang 1992: 306), India establishing check posts in between already established Chinese posts and sending forward patrols was aimed to cut the supply routes of the Chinese posts and force them to withdraw in a “Napoleonic victory style.”

China reacted sharply to the Indian forward policy, especially in the Western Sector. In a note of 30 November 1961 (White Paper VI: 3-4, 15), China protested Indian attempts “to realise its territorial claims unilaterally and by force” and threatened that if India did not stop its moves in Western Sector, China would be forced to cross the so called “McMahon Line.” In another note on 1 March 1962, China accused India of refusing to hold the negotiations and “continuing its illegal occupation of the so-called McMahon Line in the Eastern Sector,” while demanding that China withdraw from its own territory in the Western Sector. India refuted Chinese charges in a note on 13 March 1962 and expressed that it was not averse to negotiations provided China vacate the Indian territory it occupied since 1957 (White Paper VI: 18). India argued that the status quo of 1957 would be an essential step for the creation of a favourable climate for any negotiations on border by India and China. In another note of 14 May 1962, India urged China “to give serious consideration to the offer made in the Indian Prime Minister’s letter dated 16 November 1959 to Premier Chou [Zhou] Enlai, which inter alia proposed as an interim measure that, in the Ladakh region, the Government of India should withdraw their personnel to the west of the line shown in the 1956 Chinese map, and the Government of China should withdraw their personnel to the east of the international boundary shown in the Indian official maps (White Paper VI: 43).” India also stated that the adoption of this suggestion would lead to the relaxation of tension in this border region and creates the necessary atmosphere for the settlement of the boundary problem by negotiations and discussions. China spurned the Indian proposal and reiterated its earlier position that for China it would mean to evacuate some 33,000 square kilometres of its own territory, while India would have withdrawn from only a few points occupied by it more recently (White Paper VI: 57). China also stated that it was willing to consider the Indian proposal provided India withdraws from Eastern Sector to the south of the line shown in the Chinese maps.

The stream of notes continued between India and China but both parties were reluctant to compromise on their stated positions. On ground, the Chinese increased their troop deployment in all the sectors. By the beginning of September 1962, China had deployed 6 battalions along the northern frontier; in Eastern Sector some 19 battalions were deployed. Six battalions were deployed in Ladakh facing the Middle Sector, besides many battalions were kept ready as reserves (Prasad 1992: 74-75). From July onward, China started directly intimidating Indian posts by surrounding them and opening fire at them. Starting from 10 July 1962, the Chinese troops surrounded an Indian post in Galwan and cut the supply route of this post for several days. This incident was followed by Chinese firing at many other posts including Daulat Beg Oldi camp on 21 July and 4 August 1962. On 8 September 1962 the Chinese troops surrounded Dhola [Chedong] and attempted to blow it up with grenades on 20 September. On 9th September India 1962 in a high level meeting in the Ministry of Defence presided by Defence Minister, Krishna Menon and attended by Chief of the Army Staff, General P. N. Thapar, General Officer Commanding (GOC) Eastern Command, Lt. General L. P. Sen, Cabinet Secretary S. S. Khera, B. N. Mullik and a few others, it was decided that the Chinese must be evicted from south of the Thag La Ridge immediately and by force if necessary (Prasad 1992: 94-95). The operation was code named “Leghorn.” Orders to this effect were immediately flashed to GOC XXXIII Corps, Lt. General Umrao Singh, Divisional Commander, Major General Niranjan Prasad and others to put the operation in effect. This would mean that the Indian forces in Eastern Sector would go on offensive and India should be prepared for a bigger conflict with China.

According to Lt General B. M Kaul (Kaul 1967: 356), a relative of Nehru who has also been indicted by Henderson writes that when order reached the concerned officers they expressed their inability to carry out the order in face of comparatively adverse build up, limited reinforcement ability in view of the lack of troops and roads, shortage of ration, winter clothes, ammunition, and inadequacy of fire support. The officers squarely put it forth that “the task of clearing the Chinese south of Thag La Ridge was beyond the capability of our troops.” However, irrespective of outmoded equipments, logistic and communication problems, and sheer numerical superiority of the Chinese forces, the Indian government pushed Indian forces to a vulnerable position and announced publicly on 18 September that the Army had been instructed to drive the Chinese out of the Dho La [Chedong according to China] in Thag La area. Going by the Simla Convention map, Dho La stood north of the McMahon Line. The army also discussed this issue in a meeting held at Tezpur, Assam on 13 September 1962. It was raised that the available maps with the Army showed McMahon Line running south of the Thagla Ridge. On 3 October 1962, Lt.General Kaul, who had no combat experience, was made Commander of the IV Corps, a newly raised Corps. The responsibility of evicting the Chinese was transferred to this Corps from the XXXIII Corps and General Umrao Singh was divested of the responsibility for Eastern Sector. With Lt. General Kaul’s adventurism, Indian forces, clad in cotton uniforms in biting cold and frost in the Himalayas with pouch ammunition set off to “evict” the Chinese in the Eastern Sector which had remained generally calm except a few incidents near the McMahon Line.

It could be gleaned from these facts that the collision course was set in a self-destructive move. It was foolish to think that the Chinese would not launch a massive strike in the territory they considered belonged to them.  According to a Chinese account (Shi 1992: 210-11) India shot dead two Chinese soldiers on 20 September 1962 in picket south of the Bridge II on Namka Chu river [called Kejilang river by the Chinese]. This according to China was the first incident of firing by Indian troops in the Eastern Sector, which broke the dead silence of the Namka Chu area.  In another meeting in September Mao, Lin Biao, Zhou Enlai and Chen Yi deliberated on “Operation Leghorn” and reported a possible date of Indian action as 10 October 1962. Mao was furious and spoke emphatically, ‘we have fought with Chiang [Kai-shek], the Japanese and the American, and have never been cowed down, rather we have defeated them all. If the Indian people want to fight us, of course we are not afraid. We will not compromise; compromise would mean the occupation of an area equal to Fujian province [of China].” Zhou added, “We do not want to fight a war with India, we had all along endeavoured and hoped that we would solve our boundary issue with India in a friendly manner as we have done with Nepal, Burma and Mongolia etc. countries. But Nehru has shut all the doors for such a resolution; the only option left out by him is the war. I think to fight a bit has also its advantages, it could prove an eye opener to some people.” 

In a broadcast to the nation on 22 October, Nehru called on the people to face united “the greatest menace that has come to us since we became independent.” The Chinese assault, said the Prime Minister “…brought us, made us realise, that we were getting out of touch with realities in the modern world. We were living in an artificial atmosphere of our own creation and we have been shocked out of it...” 50 years down the line, it appears that India is still out of touch with the realities in the era of information age; we are still living in the artificial atmosphere of ‘secrecy’ hope it does not take us another blunder to be shocked out of it!


References:

Kaul, B M (1967) The Untold Story, Allied Publishers, Bombay
Manekar, D. R (1968). The Guilty Men of 1962. Tulsishah Enterprises, Bombay
Maxwell, Neville (1970). India’s China War. Jonathan Cape Limited, London.
Mullik, B. N (1971). My Years with Nehru, the Chinese Betrayal. Allied Publishers, New Delhi.
Prasad, S. N ed. (1992). History of the Conflict with China, 1962, (unpublished report). History Division. Ministry of Defence, Government of India, New Delhi.
Shi, Bo 师博 (1993). 1962:中印大战纪实1962: zhongyin dazhan jishi (1962: Records of Sino-Indian War). Chinese Earth (Zhongguo Dadi) Publishers, Beijing.
White Papers [Notes, memoranda and letters exchanged and agreement signed between the Governments of India and China], White Paper No. II, September-November 1959; No. III, November 1959-March 1960; No. IV, March-November 1960; No. V, November 1960-November 1961; No. VI, November 1961-July 1962; No. VII, July-October 1962; No. VIII, October 1962-January 1963; No. IX, January-July 1963. Government of India Press, New Delhi.
Yang, Gongsu 杨公素(1992). 中国反对外国侵略干涉西藏地方斗争史  zhongguo fandui waiguo qinlue ganshe xizang difang douzhengshi ( History of China’s Struggle and Resistance to the Foreign Invasion and interference in Tibet). China’s Tibetology Publications, Beijing.


Wednesday, March 5, 2014

On Li Keqiang’s Government Work Report 2014



Premier Li’s government work report at Wednesday’s opening session of China’s annual session of the National People’s Congress comes three days after the Kunming railway station carnage allegedly carried out by the militants from the restive region of Xinjiang. The meeting attended by about 3,000 deputies observed a moment of silence for the victims of the attack, and Li reiterated President Xi JInping’s remarks that China would ‘crack down hard on violent crimes of terrorism’ and safeguard China’s national security. 

Premier Li’s report is divided into three parts: 2013 in retrospect; major targets for 2014; and major tasks for 2014. As regards the economic performance in 2013, Li’s said that ‘over the past year, we faced more difficulties than expected, however, the results were better than we expected.’ China had set a target of 7.5% growth rate but achieved 7.7% growth rate catapulting the GDP to 56.9 trillion yuan ($9.1 trillion). The per capita disposable income of urban residents also rose by around 7 percent. In contrast the per capita income of rural residents rose by 9.3 percent. For the first time in Chinese economic history the service sector surpassed the industrial sector, contributing 46.1 percent to the GDP. In the urbanization drive, China undertook to build 6.6 million units of subsidized houses of which 5.4 million were completed; 7 million more would be built in 2014. The austerity drive in terms of government spending on transport, banquets and foreign tours that was initiated by President Xi after assuming office, Li reported that the central government spending was cut by 35% and that of provincial governments’ by 26%. It is another story that the drive have shut down many businesses catering to such services, as was revealed to this author by some friends while in China. Austerity drive apart, China has contributed to the stabilization of world economy, especially when many countries across the world are reeling under the wrath of global economic meltdown. 

As far as the year 2014 is concerned, GDP growth has been projected at about 7.5%. Li has intended to create 10 million urban jobs in this year and restrict the urban unemployment rate at a maximum 4.6%. The budget deficit is projected to be $218 billion accounting for 2.1% of the GDP. Nine major tasks outlined for the year 2014, are in sync with the general debate on development in China. These include breakthroughs in reform in important areas, fostering domestic demand as the main engine of growth, agricultural modernization, people-centered urbanization, accelerating the development of education, health, culture etc. Li has also promised to cancel or delegate to lower-level governments another 200 administrative approvals in addition to last year’s 400 and more approvals. In order to bring in more transparency, the central and provincial governments would be required to make their budgets and accounts open to the public. Some of the state sectors such as banking, oil, power, railway and telecommunications would be opened for private investment. In order to facilitate e-governance and e-commerce, Li promised to speed up 4G mobile networks and further build 100M fiber optic networks in cities and extend broadband connectivity to villages.

It could be discerned that the present government is in sync with the policies of the previous governments. We may recollect that former Premier Wen Jiabao had regarded the 12th Five Year Plan (2011-2015) as a crucial period for building a modest well off society, deepening the reforms, and accelerating transformation of the economic development in China. China, he said would moves away from the labor intensive industries to the high end manufacturing and service industries. China would like to shed the image of being viewed as the ‘world factory’ and venture in becoming the R&D hub of the world. To this end, 2.2% of the GDP has been earmarked for R&D since 2011 and has shown a steady increase since then. Wen had also pledged to build 36 million affordable apartments for low-income people, and the creation of 9 million jobs in the year after year starting from 2011. Wen had projected a growth rate of 7% during the 12th Five Year Plan. He had projected that by 2015 China’s GDP at 2010 prices should reach over 55 trillion yuan (over 8 trillion USD). If one glance over the statistics, it is clear that objectives have been realized two years in advance. According to a study conducted by Price Waterhouse Cooper, China will be the largest economy in the world by 2020 and will replace the US by 2030. Therefore, there will be major shifts in the world economic order by 2020 in which emerging economies will become more important thus further enhancing their economic as well as political clout at the world stage. 

Chinese analysts have summarized the characteristics of the Government Work Report in three Chinese characters as ruthlessness () stabilization (), and pragmatism (). Ruthlessness, have been used to get rid of any hurdle in the way of deepening reforms. Decentralization of government responsibilities and opening some of the state owned monoliths for private investment is an indication to this fact. Ruthlessness is also demonstrative of defusing the popular discontent in the face unequal income distribution, air pollution and other environmental hazards. Premier Li used the words ‘declaration of war’, implying ‘war’ on poverty, and environmental issues; his government’s resolve to shut down 50,000 small coal-fueled furnaces, and installation of desulphurization facilities in thermal power plants with the capacity of 15 million kw, denitrification facilities in plants with 130 million kw of production capacity, and installing dust control device on those with the 180-million-kw capacity are some of the tasks outlined for this year. Also, around 6 million old vehicles will be banned from the road. Transparency in spending ‘public funds’ could be said another measure linked to ‘ruthlessness’. The ‘strike hard’ campaigns against separatism, terrorism and prostitution could also be put in this category. 

As far as ‘stabilization’ is concerned, it is primarily used in the context of macro-control measures and policy continuity. In Li’s words China will not take short-term stimulus measures, will not broaden deficit, will restrict excess supply of money, and will save the economy from sliding off the track.’ Consumer Price Index would be stabilized at 3.5% and unemployment at 4.6%. As import and export growth is expected around 7.5% it has been stressed to stabilize and improve the export policies; as far as investment is concerned, Premier Li has earmarked 457.6 billion yuan of government budget for investment. Besides, domestic consumption would be enhanced by increasing the income levels of the people thus bringing even larger sections of the people under the folds of middle class. 

As regards ‘pragmatism’, it is the same euphemism described by ‘seeking truth from the facts’ phrase often used by Deng Xiaoping. Premier Li reiterated that the foundations of Chinese economy were not solid, there were potential risks in the financial sector, and that there are issues related to overcapacity in some sectors. Issues related to water and soil pollution, housing, food and drug safety, health care, pension, education, income distribution, land acquisition, resettlement, and social security required new measures and solutions, for these are the issues that are very crucial for overall social stability in China. It has been seen that China is extremely nervous about any public protest, and most of the protests have been rooted in expanding social imbalances, especially the rural urban divide, official highhandedness, corruption, violation of laws, land fragmentation, land acquisition leading to forced evictions, unemployment, unnecessary cadre strength in the countryside, environmental hazards etc. issues.  

As regards national defense, Premier Li has increased military budget for 2014 to $132 billion, a 12.2% rise over 2013.  In 2013 it increased by 10.7% over 2012. China is the second largest spender on military after the US albeit the US spends over $500 billion on defense. Some analysts speculate that the real defense budget of China should be around $200 billion and believe that more transparency is required from China. This year’s rise is particularly watched with great interest in the wake of China –Japan hostilities flare over Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. The region as well as the US has expressed concern over Chinese assertiveness and growing tension in the region. In his report Li said that ‘China will comprehensively enhance the revolutionary nature of the Chinese armed forces, further modernize them and upgrade their performance, and continue to raise their deterrence and combat capabilities under the conditions of infomatization.’

As far as India is concerned there is one reference in terms of BCIM economic corridor along with China-Pak economic corridor and the revival of ‘sea silk route.’ This demonstrates that China is extremely serious about establishing these corridors and further economic integration with the region. The delegation of responsibilities to provinces should also be seen in this light. China has declared Yunnan as the gateway to South Asian integration. The BCIM initiative was put on the India-China joint statement during Li Keqiang’s India visit in May 2013. Since then one round of talks have been held in Kunming in December 2013, the second and third round would be held in 2014 in Bangladesh and Delhi respectively. 

During the talks in Beijing it was said that the corridor will establish “advance multi-modal connectivity, harness the economic complementarities, promote investment and trade and facilitate people-to-people contacts.” It was agreed that as a first step, the four countries will identify realistic and achievable infrastructure projects to boost physical connectivity. In the second round each country will come up with a joint study report proposing concrete projects and financing modalities. By the time the parties meet in India the four countries will have agreed upon a cooperation framework.  The general consensus is that at the outset integrated transport network such as rails, roads, aviation, water transport, pipelines, and telecommunications need to be strengthened. All other initiatives such as Kolkota-Kunming sister cities, Ganga-Mekong initiative and track 2 K2K (Kolkata-Kunming) initiatives will get a further push as the initiatives have been supported by both the governments.   These are the initiatives that will act as a continental bridge between the Indian and Pacific oceans and integrate China, South Asia and Southeast Asian markets. If realized, the corridor will promote social and economic development in the region.   

Finally, the Chinese premier promises to be the standard bearer of peace, development and harmony. He also invoked 2014 being the 60th anniversary of the Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence. He pledged to hold high the banner of peace but also vowed to resolutely safeguard its sovereignty and the postwar international order, a veiled warning to Japan that it should not try to change the status quo in the region. The report said that China will resolutely safeguard its sovereignty, security and development interests, and fully protect the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese citizens and business overseas, and that China will play a constructive role in resolving global and hotspot issues and work to make the international order more just and equitable