In recent years,
India’s has been widely criticized for its policy paralysis, which has been
reflected in the dwindling economic performance and all time low Rupee
depreciation on the one hand and dysfunctional foreign policy on the other,
especially when it comes to India’s smaller neighbors. At the outset, it halted the subsidized fuel
supply to Bhutan just prior to the general election in July 2013. It became an
election issue there and the then prime minister and chief of the Druk Phuensum
Tshogpa, Jigme Thinley suffered a defeat.
Secondly, the Indian Parliament scuttled the Land Boundary agreement between
India and Bangladesh at India’s own peril in early September 2013, for the
passage of the legislation would have enabled the swapping of enclaves thus
solving our boundary issue with Bangladesh, and also bring relief to the
hapless people living in these enclaves without any basic amenities since last
65 years! Worse, it would be an election issue too that would weaken the hands
of pro-India Bangladesh prime minister and Awami League
leader Sheikh Hasina, and strengthen the hands of Jehadi and anti-India
forces in Bangladesh. It has shown equal political immaturity when the
government put on hold the dialogue process following the beheading of an Indian soldier and mutilation of
another in an attack by Pakistani troops in Poonch sector in January 2013. Surprisingly, India’s relations with China have not only
shown the maturity but are broader and deeper than ever before notwithstanding
the negativity and political mistrust between the two.
Indian Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh’s China visit is falling a few months prior to the 60th
anniversary of the signing of the Panchsheel agreement between India and
China, the first ever confidence building measure (CBM) or the conflict
management mechanism (CMM) between free India and China. The visit, which is a
return visit to the visit of the Chinese Premier Li Keqiang to New Delhi in
May, will mark the first instance of back-to-back visits by leaders of two
countries in the same year since 1954. It
would maintain the momentum of the visits at the highest level, and is a
pointer to the fact that India-China relations are moving towards a strategic
depth as these have widened and deepened at various levels. Let us examine the following facets of this relationship:
Security
scenario
Imagine if
India’s borders with China plunge in the kind of volatility we have witnessed with
our western neighbor! Thanks to the existing border mechanisms that India-China
border has remained peaceful and there has not been a single incident of
bloodshed for almost half a century. The Joint Working Group (JWG) on
border in the wake of Rajiv Gandhi’s December 1988 China visit could be
regarded as the second CMM after the Panchsheel. The “Agreement on
Maintenance of Peace and Tranquility along the Line of Actual Control in the
India-China border area signed on September 7, 1993; the Agreement on Confidence Building Measures in the
Military Field Along the Line of Actual Control in the India-China border areas
signed on November 29, 1996; and the Protocol on the Political
Parameters and Guiding Principles for the Settlement of the India-China
Boundary Question signed on April 11 2005 are unique in a way that these are
not the byproduct of bipolarity of the world, neither the cold war, and nor the
asymmetrical force structure between India and China; rather the evolution of
these CMMs could be seen as lessons learnt by India and China from the
hostilities and Cold War, and the result of the rapprochement and engagement
after the establishment of diplomatic ties between India and China. The CMMs have emphasized time and
again that India-China boundary question shall be resolved through
peaceful and friendly consultations. Neither side shall use or threaten to use
force against the other by any means.
Even though there have been reports of troop transgression or incursion
at the Line of Actual Control, but this has been owing to the differing
perceptions about the LAC by India and China. In the wake of such incidents,
India and China in early 2012, signed Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border
Affairs (WMCC) at Joint Secretary Level of ministries of foreign affairs of the
two countries especially for timely communication of information on the border
situation, and for appropriately handling border incidents. In March 2012 both
sides also agreed to undertake joint operations against pirates and sharing
technological knowhow on seabed research. Another mechanisms, the Border
Defense Cooperation Agreement (BDCA) that proposes the prevention of face-offs like
Depsung Bulge of April-May along the LAC. The agreement could be concluded
during Singh’s China visit.
The face offs
along LAC are an indicator that any attempts to enhance the military capacity
along the borders by both India and China may create further tension along the
LAC and vitiate the security environment. On the other hand, the peaceful
resolution of these face-offs point to the maturing nature of ties, and that
both sides have the will and confidence to dissolve the crisis bilaterally and
prevent the crisis from acquiring dangerous proportions; on the other hand, it
is also a pointer to the fact that India-China relations remains “fragile” and
the border issue is the root cause of most of the trust deficit and mutual
suspicion, if not handled properly could rekindle the animosities in no time,
and that the existing mechanisms have been effective in maintaining the peace
and tranquility along the border, however, have also demonstrated that these
fall short of finding a solution to the border issue. Therefore, it becomes
imperative for both India and China to show political will and resolve, and
reach an agreeable resolution of the border as soon as possible so that a way
is paved for a firmer hand shake and trust.
CMMs at
different level as well as “Memorandum of Understanding for Reinforcing
Communication and Cooperation in the Defense Areas” between India and China
signed during Pranab Mukherji’s, the then Defense Minister of India China
visit, literally made joint military exercises on counter terrorism, fight
against piracy, joint search and rescue between these two countries possible,
albeit there still exists security deficit which is manifested in the form of visa refusal to Lieutenant General B. S. Jaswal, of
the Northern Command by China in 2010, and suspension of defense ties by India
with China in a tit-for-tat move.
Irrespective of minor hic ups the overall environment has increasingly shown
remarkable improvement. There are exchanges between all the three armed
services of India and China at various levels never seen before.
Trade and
commerce scenario
The trade and
commerce between the two has never been so good in the history of independent
India. Bilateral trade a decade back was
just 5 billion US dollars, but rose to 74 billion dollars in 2011. However,
owing to global economic meltdown coupled with India’s own macroeconomic
policies, it dropped to around USD 66 billion in 2012. The target of taking it
to the mark of 100 billion US dollars in the backdrop these dwindling figures
and widening trade deficit of around 30 billion US dollars for India may derail
the projections. As we have seen CMMs in security, the trade and commerce have
also witnessed the establishment of the Joint Economic Group (JEG) on Economic
Relations and Trade, Science and Technology at
Ministerial Level established in 1988; Joint Working Group (JWG)
on Trade at Joint
Secretary Level established in
2003; The
India-China Joint Business Council (JBC) between
Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) on the Indian
side and the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT); India-China Trade Remedy
Cooperation mechanism at Joint Secretary Level, and many other
JWG in other sectors like coal and steel etc.. In order to deepen and elevate the current levels of
exchanges at micro and macro levels, both sides agreed to establish the annual
Strategic
Economic
Dialogue (SED) since 2011. During the
second SED held in Delhi 11 MoUs worth $5.2 billion were signed.
Notwithstanding
such initiatives, the approach from both the sides has remained cautious and
incremental. There are also prejudices as regards security issue amidst
economic cooperation. A study conducted by the JSG about the trade
patterns between India and China suggests that a very significant potential
exists for substantial expansion of trade between the two countries. The
investment in high speed railway and other infrastructural building projects
could be considered as big opportunity windows to both the countries. For India it could prove as an opportunity to
learn from the Chinese experience, for it was during last 30 years of
experience that China could develop its own technologies, perfect its manufacturing facilities, bring in new
managerial practices and become self reliant in many sectors, like
heavy machinery and computer hardware. Conversely in order to address
the balance of trade issue, China could give a
bigger market access to Indian pharmaceutical and IT companies in the Chinese
markets.
People to people exchange scenario
The people to
people exchanges are at the best; there has never been so many people traveling
from one country to another. Over 600,000 Indian people have been traveling to
China annually comprising of businessmen, academics, tourists, governments
officials, cultural troupes and so on. Indian students studying in Chinese
university alone, accounts for over ten thousand. The governments have taken
various initiatives, be it the exchange of students; youth delegations;
cultural festivals; media exchanges; and Cooperation in Mutual Translation and
Publication of Classic and Contemporary Works. Worth mentioning are the first ever
and back to back Media Exchange conferences held in Beijing between September
21 and 24, and in Delhi between September 26 and 27. Interestingly much of the
negativity is created by the media only whether print or electronic, and most
of it revolves around border, PLA and other security issues in India. The
Indian delegation that visited China was amused to see the kind of changes that
were taking place in media, and how the Chinese media has geared themselves to
the needs of 600 million plus netizens, and how the social media was emerging
as a watchdog in a society where it is believed that freedom of expression was
a taboo. The number of reporters stationed in India and China has also gone up,
albeit the number of Indian reporters in China remains low in proportion to
Chinese reporters in India.
Global scenario
Even though the
state of India and China is different from it was a decade or couple of years
back when both India and China witnessed impressive growth rates to the tune of
over 8 and 9 percents, the cooperation at global stage has strengthened even if
India’s economic performance has dwindled to 4.4 percent this year. Even though
the gap between India and China is widening in terms of economic development
and overall living standards of their population, both have witnessed increased
level of engagement at world arena. Both
have found some real convergence of interests on issues such as climate change,
democratization of international financial institutions through multilateral
forums such as Russia-China-India Strategic Triangle, Brazil; Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS); Brazil-South Africa-India-China (BASIC); the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF);
East Asian Summits (EAS); G 20 and other multilateral forums such as both the
countries being observers in Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). India and
China have also initiated dialogue on terrorism and
Afghanistan.
The multilateral
cooperation has been used to strengthen the bilateral
relations by both the countries, and both are working towards raising the level
of bilateral relationship with the hope of creating larger stakes in each
other’s economic systems through complementarities and interdependence. These
have also resulted in China scaling down its policy of
supporting India’s neighbors. Even though the relations have been best at
bilateral, regional and multilateral level, there are elements of competition
along with the problems left over from the history. The unresolved
boundary issue remains the fundamental cause for mistrust at every level.
China’s ‘all weather friendship’ with Pakistan and supplying the latter with
sophisticated military weaponry including the missiles and nuclear technology,
has cropped up time and again when referring to security environment. China
using water as a weapon to coerce India has also created a negative image in
India, albeit it largely remains the creation of media hype. Conversely, China
has also accused India of meddling in its internal affairs by encouraging the
Dalai Lama to engage is separatist activities, and also by fishing in the
troubled waters of South China Sea on the one hand and coming closer to the US,
and Japan for containment of China on the other. The joint statement signed
during Singh-Obama meeting in US on 28th September that envisages
closer defense and strategic ties, and India’s decision to participate in the
Rim of Pacific (RIMPAC) naval exercises in 2014 would certainly ruffle some
feathers in Beijing.
Nevertheless,
despite of all the negativity and an element of competition, the bilateral ties
are robust. Both have acknowledged that the
global political architecture is undergoing a fundamental transformation with
balance of power gradually shifting from the Atlantic to Pacific. The notion of
Nehru’s ‘resurgent Asia’ and Deng Xiaoping’s ‘Asian Century’ seems to hold
ground, however, the future these notions would largely depend on the
relationship between India and China, for the relationship will not only define
the contours of new international political order in Asia but also the world at
large.
