There are speculations that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s trip to
Japan was a tit for tat to Chinese Premier Li Keqiang's visit to
Pakistan. However, the fact is that Manmohan Singh could not visit Japan
in November 2012 owing to parliamentary elections in Japan.
There are speculations in China that a third day was added to Singh’s
Japan visit in the backdrop of border ‘face off’ between India and
China to demonstrate that there are converging strategic interests in
the relationship. Though China understands that India’s reaching out to
Japan is part of India’s ‘Look East’ policy, however, China sees India’s
diplomatic expansion in East and Northeast Asia, especially the forging
of strategic relationship between Vietnam, Japan, and South Korea
essentially as ‘containment’ of China. It also sees India and above
mentioned countries along with the US working in tandem and extending a
helping hand to the US’s ‘pivot’ to Asia. India’s oil explorations in
the South China Sea are also viewed as India conniving with Vietnam and
undermining its sovereignty in the region though India has long made it
clear that its presence in the region is primarily commercial in nature
and also owing to the energy security needs.
Notwithstanding the language of the joint statement issued at the
close of Li Keqiang’s India visit that envisages that both India and
China ‘view each other as partners for mutual benefit and not as rivals or competitors, and also that the ‘two sides are committed to taking a positive view of and support each other's friendship with other countries’
it was China who was first to raise eyebrows about India’s relationship
with Japan (emphasis added) albeit India has been expressing its
concern over the ‘all weather’ friendship between China and Pakistan
every now and then. The Chinese apprehensions, rather paranoia over
India-Japan bonhomie is visible in the Chinese print media. Some
articles with headlines such as “India gets close to Japan on its own
peril” by Global times, a sister paper of CPC’s People’s Daily known for its nationalistic fervors; “Warming of India-Japan relation is to compete with China” by Cankao Xiaoxi; “Enemy’s enemy is my friend” by takungpao.com; People’s Daily cautioning
New Delhi against ‘petty burglars’ and ‘provocateurs’ among Japanese
politicians who were out to target Sino-Indian ties and scores of other
articles reflects the Chinese state of mind.
China is aware of the fact that the global political architecture is
undergoing a fundamental transformation with power increasingly shifting
from the West to East, and also that the 21st Century is
going to be an Asian Century. It is also aware of the fact that the
future of this century hinges on the relationship between India, China,
Japan and also the US. Therefore, as the centre of gravity shifts from
the Atlantic to the Pacific, all above stakeholders are calibrating
their strategies in the Pacific. Shinzo Abe’s ‘Democratic Security
Diamond’ between India, Japan, Australia and the US has also been seen
as the one directed against China. China has warned the US that the
latter needs to be cautious in its approach as regards China’s core
interests in the region. As far as US’s commitment to support Japan in
case of military conflict, under the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and
Security Between Japan and the United is concerned, China wishes that
the US must recognize that the treaty is a product of the Cold War, and
has no relevance under present circumstances. In a veiled warning to the
US, it has stated that the comprehensive national strength of China has
increased manifolds since then, therefore the US should not be burning
its fingers by taking the Japanese chestnuts out of the fire.
India-Japan relationship though multifaceted having huge potentials
in trade and investment and defense and security, but is nascent,
especially in the realm of security cooperation. For example the
bilateral trade between India and Japan stands just at $14 billion. This
is abysmal if compared with India’s $70 billion trade with China, and
China’s $300 billion plus trade with Japan. It is generally believed
that India and Japan have been slow in building the strategic
partnership; if one analyses the trend, we can say that it was only
since 2008 that the direct investment from Japan started to register an
increase. It was $5.5 billion in 2008 and reached $13.5 billion in 2010.
Secondly, the Official Development Assistance (ODA) from Japan to India
has been impressive, especially after 2003 when Japan stopped its ODA
to China. The ODA in India has been utilized in areas such as
infrastructural development, poverty alleviation programs, sanitation
and environmental protection etc.
As far as defense and security relations are concerned, these have
undergone tremendous changes ever since October 2008 when India and
Japan signed a Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation. With the
establishment of ‘India-Japan Strategic and Global Partnership’ and the
practice of annual summits at the highest level since December 2006,
India-Japan relations have witnessed all round growth. During Manmohan
Singh’s recent Japan visit between May 27 and 30, 2013 the news of Japan
showing interest in selling US-2 amphibious planes found a wide
coverage in Chinese as well as Indian media. Lü Yaodong, a researcher at
the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social
Sciences, suggested that it would mark a strengthening of the alliance
between Japan and India in terms of defense and military cooperation,
and that Japan is trying to take advantage of the border conflicts
between India and China and to contain the latter with the possible
sale. China has been keeping a close eye on India-Japan naval exercises,
Han Xudong, professor at the National Defense University, Beijing wrote
an article saying that the ‘the dagger of India-Japan military
exercises was pointed towards China.’ A new dialogue for discussing
maritime affairs, including maritime security challenges have equally
invited the ire of Chinese strategists and scholarship alike. India’s
intervention in the South-China Sea has been looked by China time and
again through the prism of ‘containment theory’ notwithstanding the fact
that India, Japan, the Republic of Korea and China coordinate escort
schedules for merchant ships as well as the anti-piracy operations in
the Gulf of Aden. China is also aware that India and Japan are keen to
expand the dialogue on civil nuclear cooperation, India has shown
interest in reactors vessels produced by Japan Steel, however, India is
also aware of the Japanese sensitivities on nuclear front, especially
after the Fukushima disaster in 2011.
The relations between China and Japan have deteriorated to nadir in
recent times, especially in the backdrop of Senkaku/Diaoyu dispute.
Analysts have often pointed to the economic benefits and the strategic
location of the island. Both would like to extract the huge reserves of
minerals, oil and natural gas from underneath the islands, as a 1969 UN
reports has indicated that there are huge reserves of oil and gas in the
area. It was also after the report went public that the voices of
sovereignty have been louder in both the countries.
Secondly, since
Japan has been fishing in these waters since 1895, it does not want to
let the benefits go over to China. As far as strategic position is
concerned, if the Japanese retain the Islands, it can set up air and sea
surveillance reconnaissance systems, shore-based anti-ship-to-air
missiles on the island. By doing so, it could put a blockade to all the
ports and air routes emanating from northern Taiwan, and also put areas
such as Fuzhou, Wenzhou and Ningbo in mainland China under its radar.
China would be very apprehensive of every move of the Japanese it
decides to do so. Therefore, the establishment of the military bases and
the deployment of heavy weaponry on the island will pose a serious
threat to China's national defense and security, argues China. It is
this rivalry and historic animosities that China keeps on reminding its
people about the Japanese aggression. For example, on the occasion of
the 81 anniversary of the Japanese invasion of northeast China on
September 18, 2012, the History Museum in Shenyang, Liaoning Province,
which has been built specially to remember the anti-Japanese conflict
(1931-45), rang a bell 14 times that signified the 14 year agony and
disgrace China suffered at the hands of Japanese. Anti-Japanese
demonstrations and protests ‘erupted’ across major Chinese cities,
forcing the shutdown of many Japanese businesses. China has also
accused India of taking advantage of its troubles with Japan and forging
closer ties with the latter.
There is a constituency in India that posits that given the growing
disparity in India-China power structure, India needs to forge close
ties with the US, Japan, Vietnam, South Korea and Indonesia etc.
countries so as to prevent China in gaining regional hegemony. They hold
the view that Nehru committed mistake when he viewed the surge of
communism in China as resurgence of the Asian nationalism in late 1940s;
and warns that Indian leadership must not repeat the same mistake, as
power is necessary expansionist. It appears that India has taken a leaf
out of China’s strategies in the region and moved closer to Japan. While
leaving for Japan, the Indian Prime Minister did tell the Japanese
media in New Delhi that “Both India and Japan are important maritime
nations. Therefore, safety and security of the sea lanes of
communication, especially in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, is vital for
both countries.” The pragmatists including Harsh Pant argues that it
is irrelevant to debate whether China is a malevolent or benevolent
power; they advocate that India must realize that it is the structure of
the global politics that makes Sino-Indian rivalry inevitable, and
India’s choice is either to play by the rules of global politics or
resign to a secondary status in global hierarchy. Therefore, India must
start to play the balance of power game more seriously, and should learn
it from China, especially given the asymmetrical relationship between
the two. Has India started to play the balance of power game, it seems
doing so cautiously, but will it go whole hog, one has to wait and
watch.
