China silent on incursion but reports escalation of tensions

The reports of at least 40 People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops intruding and camping at Debsung Bulge, 30 km south of Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) and almost 10 kilometer inside the Indian territory has once again cast the shadow of mutual distrust and security deficit between India and China. It has also vitiated the atmosphere in India and perhaps in China too just before the forthcoming visit of the newly elected Chinese Premier, Li Keqiang to India in May. It appears that we are heading towards the repeat of Hu Jintao’s India visit in 2006.

Chinese media has been silent on the incident of incursion but have frequently reported the Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) sector ‘camp confrontation’ regularly in its media, primarily reporting the coverage of the incident in the Indian print and electronic media. These have been published in military and non military websites such as  http://www.junshiniba.com/qinggan/2013-04-24/4166.html ,http://www.qianzhan.com/indynews/detail/256/130424-888bc4e9.html , http://www.daozhou.net/news/china/20130424/43060.shtml , http://i.ifeng.com/news/guoji/news?aid=58968452&mid=, http://www.daozhou.net/news/china/20130424/43044.shtml including People’s Daily’s tabloid  the Global Times. The Chinese media reports say that the confrontation has flared up with the Indian decision to mobilize an infantry regiment from the nearby region to put pressure on China. Quoting Indian sources, these reports mention that the stand-off has continued even after the second flag meeting between the troops.  These reports have covered the statements of the Indian Ministry of External Affairs that have sought withdrawal of the Chinese troops and call for a status quo in the area. Summoning of the Chinese ambassador in India has also been reported.  The websites have also quoted China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswomen, Hua Chunying making a statement that "the two parties have maintained good communication and coordination on the border issue." Denying the reports of incursion Ms Hua has maintained that the Chinese troops had "patrolled the border line and did not go one step across the Line of Actual Control."

In India it has also been reported that it was not just an intrusion by the PLA border guards, but also the violation of Indian air space, as the intrusion was supported by the PLA Choppers. Ever since the incident has been reported, India has tried to play down the incident and has attempted to resolve it through existing mechanisms even though it has blamed China for increased assertiveness and frequent incursions in recent years. India has asked China to revert back to the pre incursion position and maintain status quo. Indian Defense Minister, Mr. Antony has also expressed that talks are on at various level to find a peaceful solution to the problem. The fact that Indian Foreign Minister, Salman Khurshid putting Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s India visit above these incursion, and also that India has dispatched a defense delegation to China to work out the details of forthcoming hand-in-hand military exercises, shows that India is serious in maintaining good neighborly relations with China, and wishes the same from China. However, even though China has called for a calm it has also been reported that China is adamant to pull back, it has rather asked India to dismantle its posts from the disputed territory.   

It is understood that these incursions do occur from both sides owing to different perceptions and positions on the LAC, for the Sino-Indian border has never been demarcated on the ground and both sides hold their own version of the boundary line, and hence the LAC. Between 1993 and 2005 both countries have agreed to a set of confidence building measures (CBMs) along the LAC and have suggested ways and methods to resolve such issues. For example the Article 1 of the 1993 CBMs clearly stipulates that “the two sides shall strictly respect and observe the line of actual control between the two sides. No activities of either side shall overstep the line of actual control. In case personnel of one side cross the line of actual control, upon being cautioned by the other side, they shall immediately pull back to their own side of the line of actual control. When necessary, the two sides shall jointly check and determine the segments of the line of actual control where they have different views as to its alignment.” Article 4 of the same agreement says “In case of contingencies or other problems arising in the areas along the line of actual control, the two sides shall deal with them through meetings and friendly consultations between border” Article 5 talks about air intrusion and states that adequate measures should be taken to ensure that “air intrusions across the line of actual control do not take place and shall undertake mutual consultations should intrusions occur.”

Article 1 of the 1996 CBMs in the same vein calls thatno side should engage in military activities that threaten the other side or undermine peace. Article 6 and section 4 of the agreement which has also been quoted by the MEA stipulates that “if the border personnel of the two sides come in a face-to-face situation due to differences on the alignment of the line of actual control or any other reason, they shall exercise self-restraint and take all necessary steps to avoid an escalation of the situation. Both sides shall also enter into immediate consultations through diplomatic and/or other available channels to review the situation and prevent any escalation of tension.” Interestingly, Article 9 of the agreement stipulates that “in case a doubtful situation develops in the border region, or in case one of the sides has some questions or doubts regarding the manner in which the other side is observing this Agreement, either side has the right to seek a clarification from the other side. The clarifications sought and replies to them shall be conveyed through diplomatic channels.”

Article 9 of the 2005 agreement between India and China also invokes these two agreements when it states that “Pending an ultimate settlement of the boundary question, the two sides should strictly respect and observe the line of actual control and work together to maintain peace and tranquility in the border areas. The India-China Joint Working Group and the India-China Diplomatic and Military Expert Group shall continue their work under the Agreements of 7 September 1993 and 29 November 1996, including the clarification of the line of actual control and the implementation of confidence building measures.”

All these agreements clearly stipulate the rules of engagement in the LAC areas clearly. However, it appears that owing to different perceptions these stipulations have not been followed and implemented in right spirit. Especially, in the face of such incursions, one may ask whether the Indian side has invoked Article 9 of the 1996 CBMs previously/presently or not. Whether they have sought any clarification from China when in doubt that China was not observing the agreement? It appears that India has been reactive to such incidents and has not been persistent in its approach. Many in India are also apprehensive about China’s definition of India-China boundary, for it does not consider the western sector as part of the disputed border thus trying to match the so called fait accompli of India in the eastern sector to its own in the western sector. If such is the case, China has deviated from its earlier position about the border whereby it has considered all the three sectors of India-China boundary as disputed. If there is such a shift, it definitely is a cause of concern, and we would see the situation deteriorating and escalating to dangerous proportions.    

The need of the hour is not to flare up the tension, as both India and China cannot afford to not respect the wishes of their people for a better livelihood and an environment that is conducive for economic development and peace.  The media on both sides need to play an increasingly constructive and responsible role, and desist from sensationalizing the issue. The issue must be settled as soon as possible using each and every existing mechanism at various levels. The issue should not be allowed to snowball lest it jeopardize exchanges at all levels including the trade and investment. Finally, it also reminds us of the fragility of our bilateral relations, and urgency to settle the   border once and for all so as a way is paved for an all round and robust relationship. 

On China's White Paper on National Defense 2013

China on April 16, 2013 issued a White Paper on national defense entitled “The Diversified Employment of China's Armed Forces.” The document is the eighth in series since the Chinese government issued a White Paper on defense in 1998. The entire text of the document has 15, 271 Chinese characters consisting of five sections namely:  new Situation, new challenges and new missions;  building and development of China's Armed Forces; defending national sovereignty, security and territorial integrity; supporting national economic and social development; and safeguarding world peace and regional stability. Besides, there is a preface and some concluding remarks and appendices.

At the outset, the White Paper reiterates China’s resolve to pursue independent foreign policy; need for comprehensive, cooperative and common security; and denounces any form of hegemony and expansionism. It also maintains that the modernization of its defense forces commensurate with China's international standing, security needs and development interests.

The White Paper builds on the existing features of the earlier white papers, and has perfected and enriched the framework and basic contents of the subject matter. For the first time, it has added a theme to the white paper that makes its different from the papers issued during yesteryear. Under the first section, pointing its fingers at the US, it says that there are signs of increasing hegemonism, power politics and neo-interventionism while referring to the US rebalancing its Asia Pacific strategy, and names Japan for making trouble over the issue of the Diaoyu or Senkaku Islands. It reiterates its military strategy of winning local wars under the conditions of informationization, and the diversification of PLA’s military tasks in the areas such as safeguarding national sovereignty, security and territorial integrity; supporting China’s peaceful development; intensifying military preparedness; formulating the concept of comprehensive security and effectively conducting military operations other than war (MOOTW); deepening security cooperation and fulfilling international obligations; and following the well established international laws.

The second section talks about the strategic administration of the Central Military Commission (CMC), and the actual strength of the PLA. It elaborates the composition of China’s armed forces and briefly touches upon its constituents i.e. the People's Liberation Army (PLA), the People's Armed Police Force (PAPF) and the militia. For the first time, it revealed the code numbers of the PLA Army combined corps, as well as the strength of the PLA. It says that the PLA Army mobile operational units include 18 combined corps, plus additional independent combined operational divisions (brigades), and have a total strength of 850,000. The PLA Navy (PLAN) has a total strength of 235,000 officers and men, while the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) has a total strength of 398,000. The total defense budget for this year has been pegged at 114 billion US dollars and 123 billion USD has been earmarked for public security. Surprisingly, the white paper remains silent on the number PAPF that performs the functions of paramilitary forces and public security, as well as the PLA Second Artillery Force (PLASAF) in charge  China’s strategic weapons and missiles.  China perhaps would like to tell the world that its armed forces are modest in size, that China is transparent about its forces, and that the PLA is much more confident and capable than ever before.

Third section is dedicated to defending national sovereignty, security and territorial integrity, which it says includes safeguarding a borderline of 22,000 km and a coastline of more than 18,000 km. China has signed border cooperation agreements with seven neighboring countries, and established mechanisms with 12 countries for border defense talks and meetings. The white paper says that based on different tasks, the PLA assume different levels of readiness (Level III, Level II and Level I), from the lowest degree of alertness to the highest, carries out scenario-based exercises and drills, and is intensifying blue water training of its naval forces. It states that since 2007, the PLAN has conducted training in the distant sea waters of the Western Pacific involving over 90 ships in nearly 20 batches. From April to September 2012, the training vessel Zhenghe completed global-voyage training, paying port calls to 14 countries and regions.

Section four of the White paper deals with PLA’s role in China’s economic and social development. It reveals that since 2011, the PLA and PAPF have contributed more than 15 million work days and over 1.2 million motor vehicles and machines, and have been involved in more than 350 major province-level projects that include building airports, highways, railways and water conservancy facilities. The hydraulic unit of PAPF has undertaken the construction of 115 projects concerning water conservancy, hydropower, railways and gas pipelines in Nuozhadu (Yunnan), Jinping (Sichuan) and Pangduo (Tibet). PAPF’s transportation units have undertaken the construction of 172 projects, including highways in the Tianshan Mountains in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, the double-deck viaduct bridge over the Luotang River in Gansu Province and the Galungla Tunnel along the Medog Highway in the Tibet Autonomous Region, with a total length of 3,250 km. As far as conservation is concerned, it says the PLA and PAPF have planted over 14 million trees over the last two years.

The final section talks about China’s contribution towards world peace and regional stability, as it says that China has been actively participating in the UN peace keeping missions since 1990, international disaster relief and humanitarian aid since 2002, has been safeguarding the security of international SLOCs, and carrying out joint military exercises and training with foreign armed forces since 2002.

As far as India is concerned, it figures at four places in all five sections. The reference is made in the context of joint military exercises and training; the defense and security consultations with neighboring countries, and escort schedules and convoy deployment. In final analysis the series of White Papers on defense demonstrates China’s economic as well as military self assurance. It is also an attempt to enhance the level of transparency as regards military spending, its defense policy and goals, and hence to showcase China as a responsible stakeholder in the global system. 

Xi Jinping Favours Common Security, Common Development Lauds China’s Role in Global Economic Growth

During the recently concluded 12^th Bo Ao Forum for Asia, considered as ‘China’s Davos’, which was attended by people from political, business and academic affiliations, Chinese President Xi Jinping in his speech talked about peace, development, cooperation and mutual benefits. The most remarkable feature of his speech was that China would continue to be a powerful engine for global growth, especially in face of the global economic slowdown. This is significant as over 82% of the delegates were from the corporate world. He also emphasized that China will seek common development. 

Lauding Asia’s contribution towards world economy, of which China remains a crucial component, he said the continent has contributed to over 50% of global growth in recent times, and will continue to play a positive role in the world economy, for it has huge potentials even though the region is impregnated with many difficulties and challenges. He proved his point by saying that during the first decade of this century, trade within Asia has increased from 800 billion US dollars to 3 trillion US dollars, and its trade with other regions has grown from 1.5 trillion US dollars to 4.8 trillion US dollars. 

Above all, Xi advocated inclusive growth between nations and regions and tried to win the confidence of global market players by citing a couple of key indicators as far as China’s prospective contribution to world economy is concerned.  He said that by 2020, China's GDP and per capita incomes for urban and rural residents will double the 2010 figures (4433 USD according to WB), thus complete the task of making China a well off society or moderately prosperous society. This according to Xi will also mark the realization of Chinese dream. Secondly, China’s trade with its neighbors has grown from 100 billion US dollars and more to 1.3 trillion US dollars in the last decade. Thirdly, he said it is projected that in the coming five years, China's import will reach some 10 trillion US dollars. Fourthly, China outbound investment will reach 500 billion US dollars; and fifthly, the number of its outbound tourists may well exceed 400 million people. 

On geopolitical issues, Xi said China will continue to play a constructive role in addressing regional and global hotspot issues. As far as differences and frictions with neighboring and other countries are concerned, it would handle these properly by encouraging dialogue and negotiations in a peaceful manner. In this context, Xi also encouraged regional cooperation and integration in Asia and beyond, and called for win-win cooperation amongst countries for the benefit of the Asian people and the people around the world. In a veiled attack on North Korea’s adventurism, Xi said, “no one should be allowed to throw a region and even the whole world into chaos for selfish gains.” He also emphasized the need for a vision of comprehensive security, common security and cooperative security.