Wen Jiabao, the outgoing
premier has been the strongest votary of political reforms in China in recent
times. Wen had joined the student protesters at Tian Anmen with the then Party
Secretary, Zhao Zeyang, who was equally sympathetic about the cause of the
students, and political reforms being one of their demands. Zhao got booted out
for his sympathy, whereas Wen survived. Since then, especially in his last
stint as Premier, he did reveal his thinking, on and off about the political
reforms in public. Last he spoke about these reforms was in March 2012 when he
said during the National People's Congress meeting in a live broadcast on March
14 that "Without the success of political structural reforms, economic
structural reforms cannot be carried out in full.” So far his remarks proved to
be no more than rhetoric.
As far as the President designate Xi
Jinping’s attitude towards political reforms is concerned, he has been talking
a lot about reforms, but what he is indicating so far is his commitment towards
economic reforms. His south China visit between December 7-11 is an indication,
and more symbolic in terms of market reforms. And, why not, he represents the
Shanghai clique in the Party who has vociferously advocated the deepening of
reforms without touching the sensitive political reforms.
The hue and cry about political reforms
in China has been kept alive in its best political tradition by the Peking
University, which was at the forefront of these movements, be it the May Fourth
New Culture Movement of 1919, or the Tian Anmen demonstrations of 1989 or the
recent 8,000-word
petition drafted by Peking University Law
Professor, Zhang Qianfan, and signed by 70 odd renowned legal
experts, political scientists, economists, journalists and writers. Professor
Zhang came to limelight last in 2011 when one of his classroom lecture entitled
“The Xinhai Revolution and the
Chinese constitutional government” went viral on the You Tube and China’s own version
of You Tube, the Youku. Zhang took the stock and unleashed scathing attack on
China’s present situation, and called for political reform, so as the
sufferings of China are done away with. He said, although the reforms and
opening up brought China a relative peace for three decades or so, brought
China out of the dangers of famine and ‘great revolution’; brought China to the
folds of the comity of world civilizations, but the nature of the totalitarian
structure of the power has not changed at all.
Prof. Zhang continued, in a century after the Xinhai Revolution, civil
rights have remained constricted as against the unprecedented expansion of the
government power. Extortion, unlawful acquisitions,
indiscriminate demolitions, and even
disregard for human life are rampant. Prof. Zhang further says that today, China seems calm on
the surface, but it is sitting on a powder keg. China could draw lessons from
the fall of the Manchus, only the swift implementation of constitutional
reforms can prevent the tragedy of the revolution. Past hundred years of
history and ups and downs demonstrates that only a constitutional
government can save China. We must rely on people to get rid of the
totalitarianism…
The petition drafter by Professor Zhang was released on 25 December
2011 and sought milder political reforms in China. This
is in contrast to the Charter 2008 when signatories asked for democracy and end to the single-party
rule. The architect of the Charter, Liu Xiaobo, a
dissident writer ended in prison for inciting subversion, even though the Nobel
Committee found him suitable for the Nobel Peace Prize.
It is too early to predict the impact
of such petitions in China, however, I believe Xi would require a few years to
consolidate his power before initiating drastic changes, we can expect,
however, him enhancing intra-party democracy; greater transparency as regards
the assets of CPC leaders; Guangdong has already started to declare assets of
leaders and officials; this is also linked to fight against corruption and
would be on the agenda of Xi Jinping; this could also be the part of
administrative reforms another area where we can see Xi initiating some steps.
The kind of political reforms dissidents in China and abroad are seeking would
be a distant dream as China has categorically said that it will never go down
the path of western democracy.
Therefore, rather than
talking about political reforms, fighting corruption would be on top agenda of
the new leadership. In this regards, we see him making various statement. For
example last month he told party members to “take the lead to spread a healthy
spirit, and reject unhealthy trends and evil influences". Xi Jinping is
aware of what the Chinese press says, the undeclared ‘gray’ income of the party
leaders and officials. It is precisely due to this that last decade saw outflow
of money through corruption, crime, and tax evasion reaching as high as $3.72
trillion in China.
The most we can expect from
the new leadership is the investigation of hundred thousands of party leaders
and officials for corruption, and cutting or reducing their access to public
money spent on banquets, renovations and conveyance etc. The leadership would
try to bring in transparency and rule of law; the publication of family
backgrounds even private lives of the leading party members is an inkling in
this direction. However, it would be extremely difficult for Xi to put a
complete check, and be transparent as many of the businesses are in the hands
of the kiths and kins of the former party bigwigs. Netizens may also give him a
helping hand as have been proved in recent cases of corruption over the micro
blogs, but the kind of regulations China is bringing in by forcing the users of popular microblogs to register their real
names. Even on this front the going would be not so smooth for Xi Jinping.
