Published in http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/ paper 5336 December 25, 2012
In the wake of China’s mammoth economic growth that catapulted China
as the second largest economy of the world in 2010, and the military
expenditure corresponding to its economy, everyone including the Chinese is talking
about China’s rise and its emergence as a challenger to the unipolar world. Chinese think tanks and government alike on their part have been
looking for their own answers in the best Confucian tradition where the
rectification of names is attached great importance. They came up with the concept of “Peaceful
Rise of China” (Zhongguo de heping jueqi 中国的和平崛起) during the 1990s. However, the term became a fad after it was used by
Zheng Bijian, the former Vice Principal of the Central Party School in November
2003 during the Boao Forum for Asia, and later by the outgoing Chinese
President Hu Jintao in a speech on the occasion of the 110th birth
anniversary of Mao Zedong in December 2003. Hu Jintao (2003) had remarked that adherence
to the road of socialism with Chinese characteristics is adherence to the
“developmental road of peaceful rise.” Following this, the term was used by
Chinese Premier, Wen Jiabao at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN) meeting, and a speech at the Harvard University during his visit to the
United States. Wen had tried to justify China’s rise and reassure the world
when he said (Guo 2004: 2 in preface), “the developmental road China has taken
is different from that taken by some major powers, and China’s developmental
road is the road of peaceful rise.”
The jargon emphasizes the emergence of China as a “soft power”
implying that China’s rise is not a threat to its neighbors and the world as a
whole, and that China seeks to avoid conflict. According to Duan Bingren
(2004:2-3 preface), the road of peaceful rise is a major innovation of China’s
developmental strategic thought. Duan asserts that “the developmental road,
China has sought, is a unique road seeking peace and mutual benefits; this not
only will harmonize the international order, but will also enable China to
uphold its independence, social system and choice of life style. The
developmental road of peaceful rise, seeks harmony with others, partnership
with China’s neighbors, and friendly coexistence with other countries on the
basis of Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. Economically, it seeks
integration with the globalization, and naturally seeks China’s new role in
global development equations, thus becoming a constructive and responsible
player in the international economic activities. Politically, the notion would
enable China to actively and constructively participate in the international
affairs, be a challenger rather than a moot spectator to the events and aspire
for a democratic, peaceful and multi-polar world.” Therefore, the peaceful rise
of China is an antidote to “hegemony”, “hot war”, “cold war”, “China threat”,
“disintegration of China” etc. theories and notions; it is a promise to the
world that the rise of China is peaceful.”
However, the lexicon ran into rough weather as the think tanks in China
tried to debate the pros and cons of the term. Many felt that the word “rise”
would put its neighbors at unease, while others argued that it is premature to
talk about the rise, as China largely remains a developing country. In the
backdrop of such a debate, China changed the term ‘rise’ to ‘development’ when
it published a white paper entitled “China’s peaceful development” in the
beginning of 2006. Nevertheless, the terminology is still being widely used in
government as well as academic circles across China.
The debate apart, the crux is whether the “rise” or “development” of
China is going to be a smooth sail? If not what could be the dangers or
challenges China would face? While contemplating on these questions, Xin
Xiangyang (2004:2-3, preface II) posits that China would face four major external
challenges: 1) Trade and commerce (challenges from world markets, world energy
resources, and trade protectionism); 2) National security (traditional security
threat, number of variables in its surrounding security environment, as well as
non-traditional security issues); 3) External political challenges
(disintegration and westernization of China, the penetration of Non Government
Organizations (NGOs) in China, international terrorism and the increasingly large
number of international criminal activities); 4) The US containment of China.
Besides, Xin also outlines the following four internal challenges: 1) Population;
2) Resources and energy; 3) Environmental degradation; and 4) Social imbalance.
It has been widely speculated by the analysts that the priority of
the fifth generation leadership under Xi Jinping would keep a low key profile
as far as China’s foreign policy is concerned, and concentrate more on the
internal challenges, especially the challenge of social imbalance. The
challenge has manifested itself in China in various shapes and forms. Whether
it is the question of food security, rural urban divide, peasant’s protests, the
issue of rural education or migrant laborers, each and every issue is related
to peasants, agriculture and the countryside, and is capable of derailing China
rise or peaceful development. Therefore,
economic development, deepening of reforms and opening up is going to remain
the top priority of the new leadership. It not only would help China to
overcome the social imbalances but also equip it to deal with the external
challenges in a better way.
Contrarily, it appears that of late China has shown signs of
discarding the time tested strategy of Deng Xaoping as is well explained by his
maxim “hide your strength, bide your time.’ Ever since the middle of the first
decade of this century, especially the successful convocation of the Olympic
Games in 2008, China started to take maximalist positions vis-à-vis conflicts
with the neighboring countries, be it the Diaoyu/Senkaku row with Japan in the
East China Sea, or with Vietnam, Philippines and other smaller disputing
countries in the South China Sea, or its dispute with South Asian
neighbors. As China has
started to define South China Sea as an area of
core interest in addition to Taiwan and Tibet, it has taken the disputes to new
stages by way of sending unmanned surveillance plane over disputed Diaoyu; standoff
with the Philippines over Scarborough Shoal; Chinese fishing vessels
cutting the cables of Vietnamese Oil & Gas Group seismic ship in Vietnam controlled waters; announcing
new rules for the region that authorize its police in the southern province of
Hainan to board and seize foreign ships in the South China Sea; raising threats
of conflict by establishing Sansha on Yongxing
Island in the southernmost province of Hainan; threats to disrupt ONGC Videsh
exploration in South China Sea and reiterating China’s ‘indisputable
sovereignty’ in the region; initiating a new passport design containing a map claiming the South
China Sea and disputed areas along the Sino-Indian border; and even flexing
economic muscle against the smaller neighbors in the region by banning their
exports on flimsy grounds.
Besides, since China’s economy has grown with a neck breaking speed
all these years, its military spending has also increased manifolds. For
example a decade back, it only spend around 20 billion USD on defense, the same
has increase around five times in recent years. Last year when the US Secretary of
Defense, Robert Gates met Hu Jintao in Beijing, China showcased its new fighter
jet, the J-20 in Chengdu, Sichuan. China has also showcased its own drones that
resemble the US Predator and Global Hawk. The US suspects Iran for giving China
access to the US drone that was shot down by Iran within its territory. If People’s
Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has showcased its new assets, the People’s
Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has also
commissioned its first aircraft carrier, Liaoning earlier in September this
year. Two months later China landed J-15 on the Liaoning. Analysts believe
that the aircraft carrier will allow Beijing to help project its military might
in territorial disputes. China has also aggressively furthered its space
program. Since 2007, China twice shot down its
dysfunctional satellites with anti-satellite missiles thus displaying its
capabilities to destroy spy
satellites and space-based missile defense system of other countries,
especially the US. These gestures from China has not only sent
shockwaves to its neighbors, but has also challenged the US power
projections.
It is in this context that the US ‘pivot’ or ‘rebalancing’ toward
Asia should be seen. It is also in the light of above that smaller neighbors of
China are increasingly looking at the US for countervailing China. Even
countries like Philippines and Vietnam that have suffered the aggression from
Japanese and the US are willing to forge closer ties with these countries. It
is for the very reason that ASEAN countries are taking common and united
position on the disputes in South China Sea, but they are equally aware of the
fact that even if united it is still impossible to confront China.
Therefore, even if China frantically defends it ‘rise’ or
‘development’ as peaceful, the ‘China threat’ has once again raised its head to
the discomfort of every party. The
situation may be changed to better once Xi Jinping takes charge of the party
and military, as in recent pronouncements we have seen him showing difference.
For example, in his interaction
with foreign experts in China on December 5th, he seems to have
reiterated the essence of China’s peaceful development. He said China will not
seek hegemony or expansionism and continue to open to the outside world. He
also pronounced that China’s peaceful development does not seek selfish
interests, and benefits by harming others, it seeks mutual benefits. Again
between December 7 and 11, 2012 while touring southern China, he reiterated that
‘reforms and opening up is unstoppable.’ I believe this doesn’t prove to be a
mere rhetoric as has been the case in recent times. China being a developing
country still needs Deng’s wisdom as regards the disputes
relating to sovereignty. China has resorted to military means to solve its
disputes or exerts sovereignty several times, if that happens again,
the long-term goals of China, especially attaining the level of a moderately
developed country by the middle of this century would be seriously subverted,
and the fruits of being a beneficiary of globalization lost for a few reefs and
rocks here and there.
References:
Duan Binren (2004). “破解世界性、世纪性课题” (Topic of this century and of worldwide importance). Guo Wanchao
(2004). 中国崛起：一个东方大国的成长之路 (The Rise of China: Developmental Path of an Oriental Nation)
Jiangxi People’s Publishing House, Nanchang.
Guo Wanchao (2004). 中国崛起：一个东方大国的成长之路 (The Rise of China: Developmental Path of an Oriental Nation)
Jiangxi People’s Publishing House, Nanchang.
Hu Jintao (2003). “胡锦涛在纪念毛泽东同志诞辰110周年座谈会 上的讲话” (Hu Jintao's Speech at the 110th birth anniversary of
Mao Zedong” in Liberation Daily, December 27, 2003.
Xin Xiangyang (2004). “大视野中的中国崛起” (Grand vision of China’s Rise). Guo Wanchao (2004). 中国崛起：一个东方大国的成长之路 (The Rise of China: Developmental Path of an Oriental Nation)
Jiangxi People’s Publishing House, Nanchang.
Dr. B R Deepak is Professor of Chinese and China Studies in
Jawaharlal Nehru University, India. The views expressed are his own. He could
be reached at bdeepak@mail.jnu.ac.in
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