India’s
successful launch of intermediate range Agni V has created quite consternation
amongst the military and strategic circles in China, even though the government
spokesperson tried to downplay the launch by pronouncing that “Both India and
China are very important
developing and emerging economies, the two are not competitors but partners. Both sides should cherish the hard-earned congeniality in their bilateral relations, make common efforts to adhere to the Sino-Indian friendship, deepen strategic cooperation and promote common
development, and contribute to safeguarding peace and stability in the region and the world.” However, the nationalistic Global Times, said in an article
entitled “India being swept up by missile delusion" on April 19th
that “Indian public opinion has long seen China as its reference point for
military development.” In an open warning it said, “India should not
overestimate its strength," for, "even if it has missiles that could
reach most parts of China that does not mean it will gain anything from being
arrogant during disputes with China. India should be clear that China's nuclear
power is stronger and more reliable.” The article also called for exercising
restraint, and peaceful coexistence between the two countries.
Another article on PLA website reacting to Agni V test maintained that
there was an exuberance of confidence, excitement, and an ostentatious display
of capability in the Indian media after the test. However, the article said
that there were still
three defects, namely: 1) accuracy, for India lacks the related technology. The
long-range missile guidance system is sensitive military secret, and Russia may
not be willing to supply most
advanced guidance components to India. 2) Poor mobility, for India lacks suitable
launchers, roads and bridges; presently the missile has been launched from fixed
launchers. 3) Deployment would require longer time, therefore, does not pose a
real threat to China at this point in time. In a commentary published on PLA
website on 20th April, Liang Yungchun, another military analyst
termed Agni V “a short stocky fellow’ which cannot be compared to the
intercontinental ballistic missile of P5 but confirmed its mobility that could
be difficult to detect...
An army blog in
the tiexue.net jotted that India has already become “world's largest military equipment
procurer.” In the last five years its military expenditure reached 127 billion
dollars. It could have purchased 300 million tons of rice and alleviated
billions from poverty. The military outlay for 2012 has reached 40 billion
dollars which is four times of its health outlay.
Will this kind
of military spending provide India security? It won’t, asserts the analyst.
Relying on military procurement and “a thousand country brand” won’t have any
reliable fighting capabilities. As far as armed race with China is concerned, at present, China's military spending is 1.4 percent of its GDP, a little more than 100 billion dollars; India’s spending is more than 2.1% of its nominal GDP, but accounts
to only 40
billion dollars. China is self reliant in national defense. However, China must increase its spending to
2% i.e. over 150 billion dollars and force India to double its spending and
drag India to the quagmire former Soviet Union faced, and let the Agni destroy
India itself, as also to completely destroy India’s ambition of becoming the
hegemon of Asia and the Indian Ocean!
Some other
military blogs asserted that strategically since Agni V had entire China in
range, the possibility of a large scale armed conflict between China and India
is ruled out. From tactical point of view, in case China considers recovering
south Tibet (Arunachal), China must do it through Tibet, but Tibet’s logistical
support is limited, even if Agni V does not attack Beijing and uses
conventional warhead to attack PLA concentration areas and supply lines etc in
Tibet, this alone would deter the PLA to recover south Tibet by force. If China
cannot recover it by force, will India hand it over?
The Chinese
media also talked about the ‘double standards’ of the western countries, who
were so harsh at the rocket launch by the North Korea, but encouraged India of
its missile development. China is apprehensive of India abandoning its
strategic autonomy in future and joining hands with the US and other
democracies in the region to contain China. They are apprehensive that this may
happen, as economic gap between China and India is yawing. The strategic
community in China has also taken note of some of the Indian experts airing the
views that India's strategic interests can only be realized by an Asia-Pacific
arrangement where the US retains its predominant status. In this regard the
nationalistic Global Times and many
other micro blogs have warned that “India should also not overstate the value
of its Western allies and the profits it could gain from participating in a
containment of China. If it equates long range strategic missiles with
deterrence of China, and stirs up further hostility, it could be sorely
mistaken.”
A post on the
ground forces segment of the tiexue.net jotted that the dispute between India
and China leading to nuclear confrontation is in fact the US design, the US
wishes the destruction of both China and India, which is more beneficial for
latter to maintain its hegemony. Indeed, the successful test fire of Agni V has
put the entire China in its range, to recover south Tibet by force seems
extremely difficult, and in this regard China must have alternate strategies
as: One, to punish India in a shortest possible period, i.e. before the Agni V
is fully operational; two, force Indian economy to crumble by an arm race, and
disintegrate it politically; three, vigorously support Pakistan in India’s
containment; four, build PLA’s missile defense capabilities, so as China could
shoot down the incoming missiles within Indian borders itself, and let it have
the taste of its own medicine; five, the
best possible solution is to support the armed struggle of the CPI (Maoists). Besides,
China should support the communists and opposition parties and ensure political
division through parliamentary debates, let the Indian people demolish the
reactionary Indian government, even dismember India and enforce a North-South
confrontation within the country. We support the just struggle of the Indian
people, and it is legitimate to put up checks and balances, concludes the post.
It is visible
that while Indian media has termed Agni V test as China centric and have been
quite jingoistic in its reportage, however, the Chinese media has also kindled
the kind of nationalistic media war that both the countries witnessed in
2008-09, albeit with a low intensity. The netizens from both the countries once
again seems to play a dangerously negative role, which is visible from the
various blog posts in China as well as in India. The need of the hour is to
exercise restraint and think of a credible security environment in which both
the countries feel comfortable and could concentrate more on economic
development rather than engaging in a destructive arms race. If China and India
are committed to the cause of common security, they need to initiate nuclear
dialogue. Even though China does not consider India as a threat, its defense
modernization has US in its mind, but the kind of asymmetries it has generated
in Asia has made not only India but many other Asian countries wary of China’s
stratagem. Moreover, thousands of nuclear missile in western China have Indian
targets in mind not the US. Since there are vast asymmetries in conventional
capabilities, India sees the nuclear triad as only option against China. In
this context even though the nuclear capabilities of India at sea and ground
are far behind China, and even though India is not the signatory of NPT, it
becomes important to initiate a dialogue on nuclear program, policies and
doctrines so that the intentions from both the sides are reassured.
